The View from 5th Avenue

Futures were mixed to higher for much of the morning leading into open. Investors seemed inclined to take a “wait and see” policy ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting later in the afternoon. Market opened higher but struggled to find a catalyst to propel through ATH’s, Semi’s and memory names generally better after yesterday’s softness. Also moving higher into the fed decision included large cap banks, chemicals, airlines, machinery and homebuilders. Large cap tech was broadly lower wi…

Things in motion tend to stay in motion especially in this market that hangs onto a narrative like a pitbull when it finds one. The current theme seems to be oil back to Earth and SpaceX to the moon (too easy). Confidence is building on both fronts, with hopes the long-promised end to the war with Iran is coming to fruition, and the valuation on the space tech company is apparently infinity. But not everything held true to course, the Nasdaq and its ilk taking a much-deserved breather after rea…

May Day — a public holiday in Europe honoring workers, also one of the oldest spring festivals in the world, where maypoles are raised and communities celebrate warmth and renewal as spring gets into full stride. Yet as an American, my first thought upon hearing “Mayday” points to aviation and maritime emergencies (maybe I’ve watched too many old war movies). This version is derived from the French m’aidez -“help me”. While markets remain hovering at all-time highs (why doesn’t it feel as euph…

The S&P and Nasdaq decided to play it cool today, closing more or less flat, as the market attempted to digest a geopolitical cocktail and a rather awkward office transition at the Federal Reserve. While the Fed kept rates pinned at the 3.5%–3.75% range, the real “Real Housewives” drama was Jerome Powell confirming he will remain on the board as a Governor after Kevin Warsh takes the Big Chair on May 15—a move sure to keep the White House on its toes. Meanwhile, the “Strait of Hormuz Headache”…

As if the week wasn’t chock full of market-moving goodies as it was, the frontier models said, ‘hold my beer.’ Specifically, OpenAI after a bombshell report suggested they must, you know, make money to justify those trillion-dollar data center bills. Suddenly, the AI Halo turned into an AI headache, and this became a helmet on market today. Truth be told, tech has been on an absolute heater. So given the run of late and bombastic headline, while the moves in a vacuum were a bit unsightly, the m…

As hopeful humans, it’s hard not to believe in the idea that the best is yet to come—that what lies ahead carries opportunity, abundance, and upside. So, for this Monday, we’re leaning into that optimism as the opening theme for the week. While today’s price action felt more like a setup than a statement, let’s adopt the mindset that the best truly is still ahead. Markets initially struggled to find meaningful direction through the early hours, but following the European close we saw a steady d…

So, Iran, that’s still happening. Even as US equity indexes continue to march to new all-time highs, the Middle East conflict continues in the background, flaring randomly and creating tape havoc. Investors were busy working through the multiple earning reports and indexes were trading relatively unchanged, when a fresh headline about Iran’s parliamentary leader resigning (Ghalibaf), sent stocks lower (S&P 500 dropped 1.2% on that). Indexes did rally off those intraday lows but closed down 41bp…

All-time highs once again on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran revived risk appetites after a two-day retreat. All sectors except real estate, industrials, and financials rose with technology, energy, and communication services leading the gainers. Risk-on remains the sentiment as we approach the end of April, with semiconductors leading the charge and the SOX (+2.7%) now up almost 40% this yea…

The peace-talk hopium is officially on life support after JD Vance cancelled his trip to Pakistan, though the desk can confirm he didn’t just “miss his flight” or get stuck in an Islamabad-bound Uber. The reality is a classic case of geopolitical ghosting: Iran delayed its response to the ceasefire framework, and the Secret Service reportedly couldn’t secure the perimeter on a mere 24 hours’ notice. With peace odds now dropping, the market is treating the situation like a bad trade—long on expe…

It was fun while it lasted, after a flawless finish to last week, US Equities had a different tune to commence this week. With a mixed to down open the S&P 500-SPX and Nasdaq-CCMP Indices trimmed its ATH gains throughout today’s session. We saw a bit of mean reversion with the Russell 2000-RTY outperforming as wartime tensions and Fed commentary were back front and center. After the U.S. seized an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, the risk on premium came roaring back, sending crude…