Eli Webb

Futures were mixed to higher for much of the morning leading into open. Investors seemed inclined to take a “wait and see” policy ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting later in the afternoon. Market opened higher but struggled to find a catalyst to propel through ATH’s, Semi’s and memory names generally better after yesterday’s softness. Also moving higher into the fed decision included large cap banks, chemicals, airlines, machinery and homebuilders. Large cap tech was broadly lower wi…

The S&P and Nasdaq decided to play it cool today, closing more or less flat, as the market attempted to digest a geopolitical cocktail and a rather awkward office transition at the Federal Reserve. While the Fed kept rates pinned at the 3.5%–3.75% range, the real “Real Housewives” drama was Jerome Powell confirming he will remain on the board as a Governor after Kevin Warsh takes the Big Chair on May 15—a move sure to keep the White House on its toes. Meanwhile, the “Strait of Hormuz Headache”…

The peace-talk hopium is officially on life support after JD Vance cancelled his trip to Pakistan, though the desk can confirm he didn’t just “miss his flight” or get stuck in an Islamabad-bound Uber. The reality is a classic case of geopolitical ghosting: Iran delayed its response to the ceasefire framework, and the Secret Service reportedly couldn’t secure the perimeter on a mere 24 hours’ notice. With peace odds now dropping, the market is treating the situation like a bad trade—long on expe…

The US session proved once again that the equity market is essentially a golden retriever that can ignore a house fire if someone mentions a treat. We did, however, just see the NDX log its tenth consecutive green session—something it hasn’t achieved since 2021 and only the 14th occurrence since 1986. In 13 of those 14 instances, the index finished the year higher, with an average gain of roughly 25%. That’s an encouraging historical signal. Adding to the optimism, equity bulls received their t…

With Trump set to speak this evening, and multiple headlines intraday, one can say we see potential to an off-ramp. It seems deescalation talks are looming; however it is April Fools and Trump reminded us in schoolyard fashion he’s still committed to “blasting Iran into the oblivion or stone age” if the SoH remains unopened. Instead of keeping up with every headline, lets just stick to the facts given the past three weeks have felt April Foolish. More green across the screen, after the stronges…

Today’s trading session saw a sharp broad-based rally/rotation across U.S. equities triggered by comments from Iranian President, Masoud Pezeskhian, regarding a potential de-escalation of regional conflict, causing the S&P 500 Energy Index to reverse gains and slide as much as 1.2% (led by Occidental (-2.0%) and Chevron (-1.8%). Conversely, the prospect of lower fuel costs and a stabilized macro environment sparked a massive relief rally in high-beta and “fuel-hungry” sectors: Airlines jumped 5…

US stock futures were weak all morning, with continued concerns around intensifying war in the Middle East. That early weakness continued through the rest of the session until a late day headline pared market declines as oil sold off after Israel said it will aid the US in opening the Strait of Hormuz, providing some hope for investors hungry for signs of progress as the conflict unfolds. Crude lifted back above $100, as Isreal stepped up its attacks on Iranian oil fields, with retaliatory resp…

Has software become a defensive name amid all the hustle and bustle surrounding the Middle East conflict? I would not go that far. Has it become a safe-haven from the volatility of oil? Again, likely a bridge too far, but based on recent performance (+6.5% in March), there is an argument to be made. As headlines flash across our screens of will they or won’t they open/close the Strait of Hormuz, one thing is clear, traders just don’t know. Volumes once again were depressed more than average as…