The View from 5th Avenue

Another wave of downbeat economic data confronted traders today with ISM Services coming in below all estimates while prices paid increased, showing that firms are facing rising costs and softer demand. The data also evidenced the largest decline (-15bps) of personal spending in the first half of the year that we have seen since the pandemic. Suffice it to say the accompanying sell off was sharp with the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing around Monday’s opening levels. Earnings have tapered out after l…

Post yesterday’s weekend round of golf (hot front, ice cold back – details available upon request) someone I hadn’t played with before INSISTED on a mango daquiri at the 19th hole. I was skeptical to say the least as a cold beer is the usual protocol. But I must admit, post a long round in the sun, it was an unexpected delight and might become the norm. Last week’s trading activity was far from the norm since the market found its footing in April, poor breadth all week coupled with a sizable se…

It’s been a wild ride on the bucking bronco we call tech, which refuses to have a bad day (and will likely continue this way after Microsoft and Meta’s huge beats post-close today). Treasuries were also a highlight, jumping after Powell delivered a presser that could only be described as “hawkish with a side of confusion,” as he dialed back rate cut hopes for this year. Elsewhere, commodities were a mixed bag with the dollar and oil surging on geopolitical jitters, while copper got crushed down…

Welp, after the SPX Index (-.3%) closed higher the six previous sessions for the first time since mid-May, we did NOT see a seventh up day in a row (which has only happened six times in the last two years) as earnings reports continue to come across the wires. Today’s negative performance also ends a streak of six consecutive all-time highs, previously accomplished in July 2024 . Economic data was mixed this morning – the JOLTS job openings report missed projections (7.437M vs. 7.5M), raisin…

A 1-point (+0.02%) gain for the S&P500 isn’t normally much to write home about but when the index notches a fresh all time for a sixth session the move gets a bit punchier! Investors spent today’s session digesting the 15% EU tariff rate which was widely expected but nonetheless a constructive development. In the apt words of our macro strategist, the deal “removes the fear factor from the European markets”. Attention now shifts squarely to China and meetings in Stockholm, yesterday Trump allud…

The ‘View’ has been an ongoing product for over 15 years now and I’ve been an author for it’s entire existence. We’ve added a few new writers along the way and as such, assign who will write when on the first day of the week. I mention all this because it was a real schoolboy error for this seasoned veteran to choose the day after the work summer party for their shift. Thankfully, the deluge of earnings provided plenty of adrenaline to get through the day and in the words of the late, great Ozz…

Market Euphoria? Global equity markets continue to rally on the back of continued better corporate earnings, thawing tariff concerns, highlighted by US/Japan agreeing to reciprocal tariffs at 15%, down from 25% Trump levied earlier this month. Japan rallied sharply, with the Nikkei jumping over 3.5%, taking out technical overhang at 40k. Autos were the standouts with Toyota and Honda both up sharply. Shortly after the European close, we saw headlines “US and EU [are] close in on 15% tariff de…

Hold onto your screens and refresh your terminal, earnings season just hit the gas!

A sneakily bullish tone has crept into sentiment and is taking hold as earnings kick off on the front foot. Over a quarter of the S&P500 is slated to report this week with Verizon and Domino’s Pizza front and center today. The former posted an upgrade to guidance as well as a Q2 EBITDA beat and FCF beat while the latter gave back initial gains on sales growth. The broader market followed a similar script: early gains faded late, but both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still managed to close in the gree…

BTD – ‘Buy The Dip’ seems to be the fashionable summer trend since the April 7 lows with equity markets continuing to push higher as earnings season gets rolling. Stocks rose as stronger-than-expected retail sales and a fifth straight decline in jobless claims (229.5k vs 235.5k prior) signaled continued economic strength, helping the S&P 500 (+54%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+74%) chalk up more new highs. Retail sales jumped 0.6% in June, reinforcing optimism about consumer resilience despite inflati…