And just like that, risk is back on. Indices erased losses today following cooler economic data, a great start to earnings season, and a Beige Book that underscored the current favorable environment for equities. Overnight, UK CPIs came in a bit below consensus, and not long after US CPIs followed suit. That made 3 readings in the past 24 hours that came in below consensus (US CPI, PPI, and UK CPI), which allowed reinvigorated hopes for rate cuts. Treasuries spiked, w/yields falling 10-15bp acr…

Peak sensitivity around economic data has returned following Friday’s hot job numbers and today was no different. December PPI came in softer than estimated this morning, showing inflation +0.2% m/m vs. +0.4% est. and +0.4% in November. Bond bulls thought they finally caught a breath of fresh air with US Treasury rates dropping following the print, but the relief was short lived. Treasury rates returned to preprint levels within minutes, with longer term treasuries closing higher on the day. Mo…

Merger Monday, is that you?!? If it wasn’t, surely a doppelganger as the JPM Healthcare conference gave us a familiar feeling of M&A frenzy from way back when (largest HC deal in over year, closer 2). Friday’s sentiment on strong employment numbers seemingly carried over into today’s session. Supported by a few bearish signals, rates breaking out/hanging higher, disappointing Nvidia headlines (more on Blackwell), weak Mag-7 and SOX indices. The question remains are we correcting? In my humble o…

We’re just five trading days into the new year and equities haven’t quite found their footing. While the S&P500 remains comfortably in a structurally bullish trend, 2025 expectations are borderline exuberant and there are a trio of incrementally negative factors worth keeping a left eye on: elevated volatility, subpar breadth, and lower volumes. Though not quite a ‘terrible trio’, combined they add perspective to the current price action when compared to the enthusiastic push higher for equitie…

It’s a New Year and there is change in the (polar vortex) air. Not only will a new administration be entering the White House in two weeks (tax cuts??), a solid US economy is providing investors with the feeling of “good news is bad” for the outlook of future Fed rate cuts. Chairman Powell and his Fed heads have been guiding markets for fewer cuts in 2025 (to start), but economic data continues to be robust enough for bond traders to push out their next cut estimate (to June from May). Today’s…

We’re back! Boy are we ever…New Year’s Day landing last mid-week synthetically pushed the unofficial start of 2025 to today, many choosing to use the opportunity for an extended holiday. And nudge those pesky resolutions a few days back; how are those going for everyone by the way? Mine remain both intact and a fluid situation thank you very much. Speaking of fluid, equities were awash in green as they attempt to break from the pessimistic stranglehold they were in for the back half of December…

Subdued US stock futures pointed to a weaker open, with contracts on the S&P down 0.3% while those on the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%. Both indices made strong gains on Wednesday, when an in-line US inflation print cemented swap markets’ expectations of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. Signs of still-elevated inflation pressures and the prospect of a Fed rate pause in early-2025 kept investors on edge for the remainder. This morning was dominated by the last key indicators to be…

The often-referenced Santa rally may not officially kick off until December 16th (the eleventh trading day of the month), but with a benign CPI reading out the way there was little to stand in the way of US equities today, and arguably into year end. The inflation reading was exactly what investors were looking for: inline across every metric, though average hourly and weekly earnings came in a bit light. We have a bit more to look forward to on the inflation front with PPI tomorrow, but a majo…

All main US equity indexes closed lower today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 0.3% and 0.25%, respectively. A bit more of mean reversion today, continuing yesterday’s theme with the MAG7 split on performance. Traders could be preparing themselves for tomorrows highly anticipated CPI print by taking some risk off the table. Inflation talk has picked up over the past month given its reluctancy to move lower, with estimates seeing a slight uptick in November headline CPI to 2.7% similar to…

Exactly one month after US elections the S&P500 has returned +5.21% (Nov 5 – Dec 5 2024)