The View from 5th Avenue

Fed-A-Palooza (Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium) is finally here, and it comes with a multitude of headlines. The important future headline will be Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow at 10am EST. The constant pressure to lower rates amid a higher inflation environment has been ramped up, especially after the July Nonfarm payrolls missed and previous readings revised lower. Most traders expect Powell to remain hawkish in his tone while keeping a September rate cut option open. A fine line ind…

It’s been a weird summer weather-wise, August temps coming in July, some fall temperatures hitting in August. To be honest it’s been delightful for the most part. Until said weather was interrupted today by a sudden flurry of rainstorms courtesy of Hurricane Erin, the damage to be wrought as of yet undetermined. Markets are going through a similar experience, a recent and somewhat sudden shapeshift leaving many befuddled and unsure why the turn and for how long. It was more of the same today fr…

As we cherish what’s left of our summer days, equities maintain their sleepy tune for now (at least) with majority of US earnings concluded and light macro data on the immediate horizon. Mixed and mundane day for the most part as the Megacap tech leads us slightly lower. Value outperformed growth albeit on lower volumes, still missing that “lack of leadership” to pause any reversal lower. Despite positive housing data, US averages waned into the European close, and by midday all three indices…

Markets struggled to find a direction during an uneventful day, finishing little changed on the lightest trading day since early May. Rising bond yields and a subdued VIX (still trending with “lower highs and lower lows” after Friday’s retest of January 2025 lows) failed to derail equities, underscoring the market’s resilience. Geopolitics stayed in focus as Trump’s meetings with Zelenskiy and later EU and NATO leaders delivered brief intraday lifts, but investors came away with little clarity…

The hot PPI sent markets spiraling lower initially, but eventually the major indices recovered to end flat– a whole lot of running to stand still (hat tip: Bono). Eventually a rotation emerged, as investors pivoted back into mega-cap tech and away from the cyclical/SMID-cap stocks that have had been benefitting the past few days. The Russell fell 1.2% after having an +5% in the earlier half of the week. Yields rose ~5-6bp across the curve and market odds of a 25bps Fed cut on September 17 sli…

US equities traded higher Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s rally that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs. Today’s gains are broad-based, with the equal-weight S&P outperforming, reflecting strong market breadth. Leading sectors include pharma and biotech (boosted by LLY), homebuilders, media, insurers, and China tech, while retail favorites, small-caps, and heavily shorted names are also performing well. On the flip side, grocers and staples retailers (pressured by Amazon del…

The first of two CPI prints before the next Fed meeting was a key focus point of traders heading into the week as tariff impact begins to make its way to US consumers. In the month leading up to this morning’s July CPI data, traders have increased bets that the Fed will likely cut rates by 25 bps at the next meeting following the most debated jobs report and revisions in years. July headline CPI came in in-line with expectations at 2.7% while core CPI came in a bit hotter at 3.1% (est. 3.0%). S…

Judging from muted overall volumes as earnings season winds down, can we assume the August/summer trading doldrums have arrived, or are investors merely lying in wait, ready to pounce after the CPI? Despite light volumes, there was no lack of intra-day volatility as stocks surged higher early in Monday’s session with the NDX (-.36%) making a new intraday all-time high, and up as much as 4.5% off the recent August 1st lows, before giving those gains back and then some throughout the afternoon –…

After tonight’s last earning thrust, the calendar will start to taper quickly providing the Street an opportunity to catch its breath (and head for vacation!). So far, the tally has been positive for numbers with the blended eps growth rate for the S&P 500 standing at a healthy 11.7% (per Bloomberg). That has helped keep equity indexes near their all-time highs, although the 6400/6427 (on SPX) and 21457 (on Nasdaq) levels remain elusive for another session. The indexes did attempt a move higher…

“Be a goldfish.”