The View from 5th Avenue

As April 20 has become a holiday for some, traders took advantage of indexes being near their highs to take some exposure off the table. Confronted with multiple inputs that continue to show a slowing economy, the S&P 500 posted its worst loss in three weeks. Earnings are in full swing and that is proving investors will something besides the Fed and economic data to focus on. While it is still early, the picture remains mixed, with S&P 500 earnings dropping 1.9% y/y (only 16% have reported thou…

Stop me if you have heard this story before. Equity indexes remain in their ranges. After starting the morning out in the red, indexes pared off losses by midday and traded flat through the remainder of the session. With little to no US economic data this week, traders are left to wonder what might happen if indexes were to trade out of their ranges. Earning continue to be the focus of the street as we start wade deeper into the water. Morgan Stanley (+0.66%) rounded out the big US bank earning…

There’s a lot happening here. And by here I mean the tri-state area. And by happening I mean an orgy of sports fantasticness. The New York Knicks off to a great start in their playoff series, the Brooklyn Nets are…also in the playoffs. All 3 local hockey teams are part of the extended season too, the Rangers and Devils renewing their blood rivalry in Round 1. But you didn’t come here for a sports rundown (happy to provide further though if anyone wants) – while there were a fair bit of things ‘…

US markets giving way higher after oscillating in a narrow range in typical, muted Monday trading. We ultimately ended in the positive for all major indices in a tight pack up roughly 30bps between the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq, but it was the small caps that were the true winner with Russell2k up over +1%. While there does not seem to be a real consensus around what the catalyst was for the rally higher in Equities in the final two hours of trading, we could look at Treasury yields and the fact th…

Markets finishing the week in the red today with a bit of a limp to the finish as we quickly begin to run out of steam towards the higher end of the range. Week-over-week we are up 80bps and YTD +7.77% on the S&P, for the Nasdaq +29bps WoW and +15.8% YTD, and for the Dow +1.2% WoW and 2.2% YTD. With recession concerns and/or rate hike path uncertainty [plus a side of banking crisis reverberations]- the incremental data points from the macro don’t seem to be incentive enough to push us higher…

Yesterday’s inflation (CPI) data failed to excite the markets beyond the first couple of hours of trading. Even though CPI was better than expected, it was not enough to temper thoughts of another Fed hike in May. And that hike is still coming (as of now) despite the Fed’s staff “projecting a mild recession” later this year. Today, investors got part two of the inflation series via the PPI, and it showed another sequential decline (y/y core 3.4% versus Feb’s revised 4.8%). While this also did n…

Despite a plethora of economic data today, US indexes lacked conviction in either direction paring early morning gains on the backs of CPI data before closing in the red. The S&P continues to toy with the 4100 level as it flipped over it multiple times during today’s session, closing at 4091. CPI was the focus of traders in the morning, coming in at 5% (est. 5.1%) for the month of March. The lowest level since May 2021 and the ninth sequential decline (MoM). A more concerning data point is core…

If only Uncle Warren was buying up a few firms in the US, perhaps we could’ve had a bit of a better result. We woke up to Mr. Buffett passing out bouquets (and gobs of cash) overseas but his generous spirit translated to little domestically. It feels as if every week we’re readying for some big data point or decision that stunts market activity and this week’s impediment comes in the form of CPI data coming tomorrow. Given it’s pertinence to the Wizard of Oz/Fed, at least you can say investor r…

US markets started out under water and proved to be quite buoyant on the day as they gradually wandered higher until the S&P finally closed above ground in the final minute(s) in largely eventless Easter Monday trading. The Russell2k outperformed the Dow, the Dow outperformed the S&P, and the S&P outperformed the Nasdaq (the only index to close *barely in the red). Volumes remained depressed, as to be expected, and both breadth and performance were mixed with 69% of S&P pointing higher and th…

We can’t ignore the apparent economic deterioration. Inflation is still at multi-decade highs, two of the three largest bank collapses in U.S. history just happened, and the Fed funds rate is up to 5%. And yet stocks seemed perky today. The S&P started lower this morning, but turned higher in the afternoon, closing above an important 4100 technical level. Despite this positive ending to the four-day week, the overall “net” sentiment still remains bearish, thanks to the aforementioned larger ec…