The View from 5th Avenue

If the theme is working, why change direction? Investors have been supporting mega-tech this year and that in turn has supported the broader indexes. The NDX now sits with 26.5% ytd gain versus the S&P 500 +9.3%, as that outperformance continued once again in today’s session. Investors have been monitoring the DC debt ceiling talks as Treasury Sec Yellen’s date threat gets closer. But positive a comment from Kevin McCarthy that he sees a debt limit deal on the House floor next week put a bid in…

A new hope (the best Star Wars btw) has emerged as negotiations regarding the debt ceiling seem to be making progress. Biden has decided to cut his trip to Asia short (sorry Australia) so he can return to the White House and focus on the resolving the debt ceiling before the US defaults. Some have hope that a deal may even done by the end of the weekend, but I won’t hold my breath. Main US indexes were relieved on the news and rose throughout the session. It was not enough to break the range th…

Modest inconsistencies in fund manager surveys today showed managers flocking to cash on one hand, but believing earnings will only shrink -0.8% on the other. The headline that impacted sentiment most was “65% of survey participants are now expecting a weaker economy, fading optimism for the strong China rebound and persistent recessionary worries.” That sounds less than stellar, and although markets closed lower, they still hung tight to the range we have been enduring for months.

A belated Happy Mother’s Day! Of all the wonderful attributes we can bestow upon this special group, and there are many, patience is most certainly near the top of the list. We’d be wise to follow our mother’s lead as the market continues to be test our collective will over and over again. As if the rangebound market and lighter volumes well before the summer kicks off weren’t enough, we now have the daily debt ceiling dance to contend with. This morning there were fits of optimism that further…

One of our esteemed colleagues summed up this week’s index performance perfectly with “ I can go away for two days and catch up quickly when I return cause the S&P has only changed by 9 bps”. Here we are once again closing out the week below 4200. Major indexes faded and US treasury rates rose into the weekend on long term inflation worries. Today’s U of Michigan data through a tiny wrench into those planning for rate cuts. 5-10yr expectations rose to 3.2% from the previous 3%. The highest leve…

Do I need to even break down today’s performances for the main US indexes? Another economic data print and another day of sideways trading with mega cap tech outperforming. Almost all PPI metrics were down with core PPI (3.2%) decreasing for the fourteenth consecutive month. Initial jobless claims increased to 264k, the highest report in nineteenth months but it was not enough to entice volatility in the markets. Futures remained relatively unchanged after the data release, causing interest ra…

Four(ish) hours of downside and only 1 hour to recover all of the losses. What inflation? What rising interest rates? Debt ceiling….? Still rangebound, but whatever. It felt bullish…

Markets continue to do their sideways dance as the S&P 500 traded in another tight range today (33bps). With a debt ceiling “conversation” between the White House and Kevin McCarthy expected to start just after the close, and no new news to result, traders were once again in no mood to take a macro view of the indexes. Adding to that lackluster mood was another session of little economic news. The one datapoint out was the NFIB Small Business Optimism, which dropped to 89 versus the previous 90…

A close friend of mine threw a party to celebrate his birthday over the weekend. That’s all well and good; one should celebrate themselves. The issue lies with the starting time – the host had the temerity to kick things off at 10pm. Egregious and unacceptable. Much like the attendees on Sunday and likely Monday (the 1-day recovery ship sailed long ago..), the market felt a bit tired today, volumes and volatility both lacking. Markets are traipsing into a bit of a new frontier, with all signs p…

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