The View from 5th Avenue

Tomorrow brings the official release dates of two diametrically opposed movie blockbusters in Barbie and Oppenheimer. There’s been a lot of talk of some patrons getting tickets to both so they can watch on the same day. That is some serious movie-watching range! For those that are curious, I’m prone towards the latter, but wouldn’t turn down tickets to the former either…There have been plenty of skeptics of this bull-market/bear market rally (call it what you want, it’s been directional one way…

After yet another 12-month high yesterday by the SPX and CCMP, US indices opened higher again today and continued their ascent, with earnings season in full tilt. The Dow succeeded in bagging an 8-day winning streak, something not seen since 2019, but the CCMP was less sturdy, only eking out a gain. Still, the overall nature of the day still felt vigorous. The powerful combo of robust earnings, cooling inflation, the end of monetary tightening and firming economic growth have been the source of…

Earnings seasons is now in full swing as another round of bank earnings were released this morning. A continuance from last week’s batch of earnings, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, and Charles Schwab posted beats driving up the KBW Index (BKX +3.03%) to levels not seen since April. The regional bank index (KRX +4.1%) also gained during the session to a three-month high thanks to push from PacWest (PACW +8.5%) who reports next Tuesday. Bank concerns appear to be fading…

Today was the great wait as markets head into a busier earnings season. With the Fed in its quiet period, very little economic data, and no earnings, volume in the US fell to its lowest level in three weeks. But the path of least resistance is higher currently, and traders kept to that script. While the Russell 2000 (RTY +1.04%) outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, all three indexes closed with gains. The RTY has been trying to close the ytd performance gap versus the bigger two indexes, but that i…

The British invasion of NYC was real as our office was overrun with colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic; management, analysts and spec salespeople oh my! They seemed to bring the local weather with them as a sort of security blanket, the suffocating temps interspersed with periods of torrential downpours. But while today’s move didn’t align with the rest of the week, the immaterial losses did little to dampen (see that?) the spirits of a market that exhibits no sign of slowing down…

The heat is on as the gains continue for Equities in lockstep with the rising temps into the dog days of summer in NYC. Another 12mo high for both the SPX closing above 4500 and NDX above 15,500 with positive breadth of ~70% on the S&P again today. To hammer home the debate on depth, look no further than the US Advance Decline lines clocking gains all along the market cap segments with the smid caps also doing their part to play catch-up to the big boys. Call it a back-to-back (and short-sig…

Slip slidin’ away

The stage is set for the big event tomorrow. Last week’s ADP versus NFP has been largely shrugged off as investors are planning for the potential tailwind of declining inflation. After Treasury yields spiked last Thursday, the 2-yr is back down to 4.88% and the 10-yr 3.98%, and equity indexes are not far from ytd highs. For a third day in a row, the Russell 2000 outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and finally closed above 1900. It has not done that since March 3rd and sets up for a test o…

A hesitant start to the week with main US indexes trading sideways for most of the session as traders prepare for CPI data on Wednesday and the start of another earnings season Friday. Markets were graced with a lineup of Fed speakers prior to the lunch hour with Barr, Daly and Mester expressing support for more rate hikes while Bostic was more dovish and supports a more patient approach. Some encouraging news in the fight against inflation today, Manheim Auctions reported a 4.2 percent decreas…

A welcomed miss from nonfarm payrolls (209k vse 230k) this morning sent treasury rates lower and indexes higher for a brief few minutes before traders realized this miss (which was still an increase in jobs) will not be enough to knock Powell off his plan for two more rate hikes this year. CME data is showing 92 percent chance of a hike at the next meeting but some uncertainty if another will follow into year end. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent while average hourly earnings YoY (+…