The View from 5th Avenue

August is officially off to a bit of a wobbly start after conceding more than two percentage points of gains in its first week. One week certainly does not make a month, and surely we have not forgotten so quickly that we are coming off of three consecutive weeks of gains prior. However, despite the market’s better efforts to shake off the negative tone from the days preceding, Friday trading ultimately succumbed to the move lower across all major indices into the final bell. AMZN’s impressiv…

Headwinds for equities remained present and accounted for today as yields pushed higher once again. The 30yr broached 4.3% and the 10yr spiked 10bps. Further, a handful of major corporate misses provoked fear in the hearts of investors who have been waiting for the other economic shoe to drop (Paypal -12% and Qualcomm -8.2%). The SPX and RTY underperformed the Dow and the Nasdaq, the DXY hovered around flat, and Brent rallied 2.8%, as Saudi Arabia said the 1m bpd voluntary cut will be extended…

Markets fell sharply to start the session after Fitch downgraded the US from AAA to AA+, citing the “deterioration in standards of governance” and failure to find a timely resolution to previous debt ceiling negotiations as the main reasons. Despite the shock caused by this downgrade, don’t expect the fallout to be like the one twelve years ago when S&P downgraded to AA+ following a similar debt ceiling standoff. Back in 2011, US indexes fell nearly 7% in one day, but the country was in a diffe…

We try to provide a host of things in this here daily recap and given my last TV recommendation was received quite well I’ve got another to offer. The Deepest Breath documents free divers as they attempt to reach unimaginable depths in the ocean without any outside aid. It’s a beautiful movie that is equally awe-inspiring and in a way, heart-breaking. Equally awe-inspiring and at times heart-breaking has been this bull market. If one were to make a wager at the beginning of the year the market…

Call it a typical case of the ‘Mondaze’ as markets lacked much enthusiasm until the final 15 minutes of the session. With no obvious catalysts, markets saw a strong rally into the close backed by a large buy imbalance as traders marked their books for month-end. Energy was the standout performer as Crude remains well bid above $80 and Pharma sat on the opposing end under pressure today. Major US indices all ended in the green despite mixed performance on either side of the breakeven line throug…

That was one busy week, between endless earnings, the FOMC meetings, and multiple economic data points, traders had plenty of information to digest. Today was no different, we kicked off this morning with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge PCE. Core PCE for June fell to 4.1% (cons. 4.2%), finally breaking away from the 4.6% it has been stuck at since December. Headline PCE fell to a 3.0% y/y (same rate as CPI), bringing it to the lowest level in over 2 years. Additionally, US Employment Cost I…

Quite a reversal in equities today as the major indices fell, breaking the Dow’s historical 13-day winning streak. Yesterday, Powell’s mention of rate cuts before inflation returns to 2% was spun positively. Today, remaining concerns of reflation, w/ energy and ag commodities going higher, as well as a surprisingly stronger GDP number (though mainly driven by capex), turned that smile upside down for investors who noted that the combo of a still hot economy and 10y yields above 4% would put fur…

Well, there you have it folks! 25bps as predicted by pretty much everyone. The Fed’s unanimous decision brings interest rates to the highest level in 22 years. After the announcement, traders waited patiently for JP to take the podium with the hopes of him hinting at another pause considering the recent soft inflation data. Instead, and as with previous press conferences, JP left the door open for more hikes this year. He notes the softening inflation data as a positive but also shines light on…

“Champions keep playing until they get it right.” – Billie Jean King (BBG QOTD)

Markets seem to be treading water and taking stock(…) as the focal point has shifted to earnings and averts from the broader macro / rate debate for a moment. US indices were mixed today with the Dow and S&P barely in the green, while the Nasdaq lagged into the red. The Dow stealing the spotlight from its Nasdaq peer after securing its 10th consecutive session of gains. Fun fact: a rare occasion that has only occurred nine other times dating all the way back to 1970! Not quite a typical sum…