The View from 5th Avenue

Judging by trading volumes today, the long Labor Day weekend has not yet begun for many US investors. The elevated participation (S&P volumes +14% vs. the 20day average) suggested that even the most aggressive holiday seekers wouldn’t miss the last day of the month and an MSCI rebalance. Unfortunately, the S&P couldn’t eke out a 5th day of gains, suffering into the afternoon and enduring a decent selloff into the close. The Nasdaq outperformed +11bps, despite the same closing selloff. There was…

US equities extended their winning streak today to a total of four consecutive positive sessions as the incoming data lent support via a disinflationary message. This morning’s softer ADP employment data (177k vs 195k exp) was the second reference point of the week to show signs of a cooling labor market. This was also delicately paired with a slightly weaker revised Q2 GDP (2.1% vs 2.4%) which was well-received as growth at a more tempered pace (for now). The PCE price deflator helped sentim…

US equities extended their winning streak today to a total of four consecutive positive sessions as the incoming data lent support via a disinflationary message. This morning’s softer ADP employment data (177k vs 195k exp) was the second reference point of the week to show signs of a cooling labor market. This was also delicately paired with a slightly weaker revised Q2 GDP (2.1% vs 2.4%) which was well-received as growth at a more tempered pace (for now). The PCE price deflator helped sentim…

Just Friday, the S&P was on track to not post consecutive daily gains for the first time since 2002. But, while that describes the current above the surface calm of the markets, investors can sigh a breadth of relief as the index closed today with a third day of gains, and back above its 50-day moving average (4461). The Fed was unmoved in its guidance last week and that pushed some expectations for a November hike, but today’s JOLTS datapoint usurped that view as openings fell to their lowest…

Today was one of those days where you wonder…why did I let me colleague beat me to the internal calendar and take this day/week off? The UK had the right idea with the August bank holiday, although markets would be far better served if we could just align these market closures, no? (America with their own NEXT Monday). China did their best to add a jolt of energy to the proceedings with their latest piecemeal stimulative offering and it worked for a brief while. But enthusiasm for the move fade…

It’s been a week! Markets ended their 3-week losing streak, which in itself isn’t much of a surprise, it’s hard to keep a good market down. What was surprising however was the broad gains came without much assistance from the two ‘events’ of the week. Through no fault of its own, Nvidia couldn’t hold on to its initial gains and finished well off today. The 2nd big attraction was of course Fed Chairman Powell and his address at Jackson Hole this morning. There have been differing viewpoints on t…

The moment every investor has been waiting for, the Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. First though, they had to wait and see what type of print Nvidia (+0.1%) was going the post, and the company did not disappoint. Q2 revenue beat the Street by $2.5b (actual was $13.51b), and they guided Q3 revenue to be $16bn (+/- 2%), also above expectations ($12.5b). But with the stock already up 222% ytd, Nvidia gradually moved lower throughout the session, closing unchanged. Broader indexes did…

Equities rallied as yields retreated today in a continued pattern of light summer volume trading. Any and all eyes actually left at the screens after the bell today were focused on Nvidia (+3.2%) earnings with extra lofty expectations after the stock has rallied over 220% YTD as the posterchild for AI. The combination of lower yields and anticipation into the print had equities regaining some ground lost in the past few weeks. Today’s breadth proved decently strong with the S&P seeing a 78%…

This morning it looked as though US equities would round the corner on Day 3 of equity stabilization, which started Friday and continued into this morning’s futures trading. But investor’s ability to keep equities elevated proved unsustainable. The SPX and CCMP both closed near lows of the day, the former -30bps into the red and the latter was able to eke out a green day, but only just, up a measly 6bps. These last few days of strength haven’t been enough to erase August’s initial weak weeks, and now we are less than a day away from one of the biggest catalysts this month, with the highest expectations– Nividia’s (-2.6%) earnings. Treasuries were mixed, seemingly unable to hold a bid, giving inflation bulls fuel for their narrative that yields have further to rise thanks to robust growth, reaccelerating inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Another part of that argument is regarding Energy strength though, and crude was weaker for a second day running, down another 50bps. Meanwhile, DXY strength continued +27bps.

A mixed morning for equities with traders patiently awaiting the Jackson Hole meetings later this week. All eyes will be on Powell’s press conference on the 25th as the “higher for longer” rhetoric takes a firm grip on markets.  All indices bounced at the open with the S&P up about 60bps 30 mins into the session. That gain quickly evaporated, not helped by a headline flagging the 10-year TIPS jumping above 2% for the first time since 2009. In addition, the US10y closed at another high for the year, continuing to push to levels not seen since 2007 and a full point higher since mid-May. Despite these new highs in interest rates, indices were able to shake it off and push higher throughout the afternoon session and into the close. The NASDAQ 100 was the clear winner today up 165 bps. Nvidia (+8.4%) was the main driver behind the rally after another round of bullish calls ahead of the company’s report post close Wednesday.  There are 52 buys on the name and one sell whilst the stock was 30% higher one week after their last report. Not to be overlooked was an impressive gain from Tesla (+7.3%), snapping a six-day losing streak as excitement around the new Cybertruck grows. The Russell was again a notable laggard, down 18bps and 7.3% this month.