The View from 5th Avenue

Markets remained choppy across all major us indexes today with the Russel 2000 outperforming the broader indexes. The S&P 500 was stuck in a sideways direction while the Nasdaq underperformed right from morning bell and never recovered. US treasury rates ticked higher following weekly jobless data that was below expectations. The US 10YR has slowly ticked its way back near 4.2% which looks to be a firm level. Given the lack of economic data over the past few months, it seems we a primed for som…

There’s been a lot of talk about resolutions over the past few days but personally I’m not one for the whole “new year, new me” mantra. I thought there might be some room for equities to at least try to shake it up but today did feel a bit like picking up right where we left off in 2025. All-time highs, a few Nvidia partnership announcements, and AI commentary rocking the boat. The contrarian in me can’t help but pause and wonder if anecdotes like the Bank of America fund managers’ survey showi…

Equities took a breather today with headline indices posting modest losses amid a torrent of merger Monday headlines. On Friday we heard that Netflix (-3.4%) had announced the acquisition of Warner Brother’s Discovery (+4.4%), and while the deal was always going to be under scrutiny for antitrust concerns, one supposed reason Warner chose Netflix was certainty of execution and potential regulatory favor. Paramount Skydance (+9%) mounted a response today, taking their bid for WBD directly to sha…

Futures fell quickly before the open following a report that Microsoft lowered its AI software sales quotas but that didn’t stop markets from pushing higher. The S&P was up for the 7th day in the last 8 with the all-time high in its crosshairs, while the Russel 2000 outperformed drastically today and the Dow gained more than 400 points. The outperformance in the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones followed some welcomed ISM services data. The ISM services Index rose slightly to 52.6 (est. 52) while pric…

It does feel a bit like the ground is shifting under our feet. The Fed was playing a high stakes game of will they/won’t they when it comes to a December rate cut. The CME group FedWatch tool has seen odds shift in dramatic swings of >20%, but it does now feel like a cut is the comfortable conclusion. This morning when I attempted to check however, the website had crashed and frankly I think that says a lot about how investors are growing weary of the stark divisions in the Fed. Secondly but by…

A risk-off day never feels good, but it did feel overdue. The past few weeks have seen echoes of un-comfortability around AI and a dearth of economic data – leading equities to wobble. While economic data is now back insight the jury is still out on whether we are starting to stare down an AI bubble and today saw investors take chips off the table. Semis weighed on price action like an anchor with the likes of Intel (-5.2%), Lam Research (-5%), and Advanced Micro Devices (-4.2%) deep in the red…

Most economic data continues to be on pause due to the extended government shutdown (37th day) but this morning traders focused on a less loved data point in Challenger Job cuts. Tracking job cut announcements YoY the index rose 175% in October adding to worries about a weaker labor market. While the number was elevated it was the not the highest number of the year coming in behind March which saw at uptick to 205% YoY. Cuts in technology were the highest as AI use grows. Yields and US indexes…

The Super Bowl for stock pickers awaits! Roughly 44% of the S&P 500’s market cap is set to report this week, with about 25% coming from just five names: Microsoft (+1.5%), Alphabet(+3.6%), Meta Platforms (+1.7%), Amazon (+1.2%), and Apple (+2.3%). The heavy hitters will share the spotlight on Wednesday and Thursday, while Wednesday’s FOMC meeting feels more like a side note—especially with a 25bp rate cut all but guaranteed. The more nuanced discussion will likely center around the potential ha…

AI has been the magic word and this morning it was OpenAI in the spotlight for reaching a $500bn valuation – sparking early gains for Nasdaq futures with the S&P500 not too far behind. While headline gains faded into midday before staging a turnaround to close nearly flat, debate over Fair Isaac Corporation (+17.8%) dominated the airwaves and our financials team spent the day on back-to-back calls. Overnight FICO announced a direct license program, allowing them to bypass the credit bureaus and…

US Government shutdown? No worries, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 close at another all-time high! Washington could not agree on a measure to keep the government open, and that had futures lower first thing this morning. But that also means that some economic data cannot be released (like today’s construction spending and Friday Payrolls) and investors will need to manage with the private data like ADP. Markets are looking for more rate cuts from the FOMC this year, and today’s ADP fed into that na…