The View from 5th Avenue

The weather has been ugly in New York today, an apt comparison to how equities fared this month and quarter. None of the indexes posted a gain, with 22 of the 24 GICS sectors lower as well. And over the quarter, Treasury yields (for the 10-yr) moved from 3.84% to 4.58%, as the higher for longer theme sunk in. With that as a backdrop, markets today moved lower throughout the session, with the S&P 500 closing down 27bps, and Nasdaq up 14bps. Investors continue to monitor economic data for FOMC cl…

‘Every day is a knife fight over here.’

What started off as another tough day for major US equity indices, ended with the SPX and Nasdaq flat to slightly higher with no fundamental reason whatsoever. Mark Zuckerberg talking about AI, and McConnell saying he would work to avoid a shutdown, were clearly not the triggers for the rebound. Currently, markets are being dictated by emotion and positioning without any new, clear macro guidance to give investors direction in a meaningful way. Thus, investors continue to wait with hope that Fr…

Nobody likes to lose the quarter, but sometimes it is unavoidable. US Equities are limping off to the sidelines as the end of Q3 is only days away now. All signs are pointing to a “Loss” particularly after the S&P500 fell to new 3mo lows today as the headwinds continue to build in the complicated macro backdrop markets are attempting to navigate. Despite breaking the losing streak for a brief respite yesterday, US indices continued their downward slide today as the macro data further contribu…

Markets followed the New York weather today with a dreary and dull performance. S&P 500 volumes were down 15% compared to the 20d average and performance was choppy at best before eventually closing higher on the day. Headwinds continue to develop for US equites as the S&P and Nasdaq closed below their 100-day moving average for the fourth day in a row. US treasuries have become more of a concern for equities lately, especially with longer term yields continuing to climb. The US10Y and US30Y ar…

It has been another rough week for equities as the main indexes posted their third weekly loss. The Fed has been diligent in their messaging approach about “higher for longer”, but while the CME data had that modeled (5.25-5.5% until May 2024), some on Wall Street apparently did not believe it. Looking at the moves in Treasuries this week, some portfolio adjustments have been made. 2-year and 10-year yields have moved back to 2007 levels, pressuring stocks in the process, as investors try to co…

We’ve gone from hike to hold. From the US to SNB to BoE, central banks maintained the status quo this week, and even those that hadn’t signaled the end is nigh. Even so, it’s not being taken well. The market wanted cuts YESTERDAY; that clearly isn’t going to happen, and the issue revolves around when will they come. The Fed kicked the transitory can down the road for far too long and the Street now fears they may be doing the same with the higher for longer narrative. Brief reminder: cuts were…

Well, I think we all knew where today was going. Starting the day, CME data had the likely hood of a pause at 99% and what did we get? A pause. The real focus for traders today was the new Fed dot plot which surprised most with the median rate forecasted to be 5.125% (est. 4.875%) for 2024. The US2Y rose to 5.16% after the release, a level not seen since 2006. When it comes to the possibility of another hike this year, Fed officials remained mixed. Twelve officials see one more rate hike this y…

Another relatively muted day for equities today as US markets fell mostly lower despite a (failed) attempt to fully recover ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Energy has captured the spotlight as the headwind of the moment, and though ultimately reversing to flattish on the day, the damage was done when Brent crude breached $95 early this am and spooked sentiment sufficiently. Yields rose soundly across the curve as concerns of higher for longer echoed far and wide. The 10-year yield closed…

US equities travelled quite a bit today but went nowhere, as the SPX sat near the low-end of its multi-week range, but still managed to close just slightly higher on the day. Investors await a multitude of central bank meetings this week, including The Fed’s next policy decision on Wednesday, but also central bank decisions from China, Japan, Norway, the UK, and a few others as the week progresses. Wall Street is nearly unanimously expecting the FOMC to hold the federal-funds rate steady at 5.2…