First things first – last week’s Wheel of Fortune competition (guess the puzzle w/ no letters – 80s theme song the clue) was won in blazingly fast fashion by Jujhar Sohi – as promised, recognition in the View! Well done! The short week has now concluded and it was the bears getting rick-rolled as equities took another leg higher and further distanced themselves from what was once known as resistance. After trading sideways for some time, the market has entered you cant stop it you can only hope…

Stocks pared premarket gains after ADP employment data for May showed a gain of 278k (est. 170k) fueling concerns that a persistent employment market will keep inflation around current levels. However, unit labor costs showed a growth of 4.2% for Q1 2023. This was well below estimates of 6% and provides support for a rate hike pause come June. Stocks remained flat through the early session until ISM data was released, sending stocks (most notably tech) higher and treasury yields lower. Most of…

Some love lost in markets today as the S&P closed below 4200 for some month-end profit taking. The risk-off sentiment was initially sparked by a weaker China Manufacturing PMI number falling deeper into contractionary territory overnight. A hotter JOLTS Job Openings figure then added further downward pressure on shares mid-morning. With fresh, new evidence confirming that the imbalance of demand for workers is still outpacing the supply of available employees, the fight to cool persistent wa…

For those that are traveling on their way to long weekend plans, let it be known that we have closed above 4200 on the S&P! And given that the 2 stars of the show driving markets higher are 1.) AI-fueled earnings (MRVL + 32%)/ BigTech updraft and 2.) hopes for an imminent handshake on the debt ceiling into the long weekend, I thought I would blend the two and ask ChatGPT how to solve the limit impasse. The answer provided 6 possible solutions which included: raise the debt ceiling, reduce s…

$184bn. That may be off by a billion or two, but that eyewatering number is what Nvidia added to its market cap today. It also sums up what is currently happening to the US markets. Mega-tech/AI is driving the current performance, while the rest of the sectors are searching for the next direction. With the Nvidia (+24.3%) story driving gains in the Nasdaq and S&P, investors continue to monitor the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. Both sides seem to be working towards a deal, especially after…

Frustration is building in the markets as indexes continued their slide from yesterday. Speaker McCarthy used the credit card analogy to explain the debt crisis once again but continued negotiation failures by both sides have resulted in no progress. We inch closer to default each day and risk recession as Yellen once again reiterated that it is “highly likely” the treasury will run out of money early June. The likelihood of a default is no longer zero as progress on the core issues, government…

The psychological element of markets is always an interesting thing to study and dissect. While sitting rangebound for seemingly forever, we’ve heard two camps of thought as 4200 on the S&P remains close and yet so far away at the same time. That being, the longer we remain elevated from the October lows, the more bullish for the market. Alternately, the more we go without breaking through that level, the worse it is. With another type of ceiling hovering above the market’s head, it gave invest…

It’s a treadmill run kind of training trading day. The work was put in, we broke a sweat in reaction to a few headlines, but no actual distance was covered. Aside from the momentary blip lower in the first hour of trading on fake news via an AI-generated image and accompanying news of an explosion at the Pentagon that was quickly debunked… The S&P struggled and again failed to secure a close above 4200 as lawmakers tweet over the debt ceiling debate and Fed speakers chime in with their rate p…

Two steps forward, one step back. After an impressive rally over the past 2 sessions, we have closed the week out by retreating marginally lower and ending just shy of the key 4200 level on the S&P. The index is +1.65% WoW and ~+9% YTD which still lags that of its global peers and is less than half of its Nasdaq peer’s gains. While we have spent plenty of time and effort climbing the wall of worry, it was the worry that got the better of the market today. The largest contributing factor came…

If the theme is working, why change direction? Investors have been supporting mega-tech this year and that in turn has supported the broader indexes. The NDX now sits with 26.5% ytd gain versus the S&P 500 +9.3%, as that outperformance continued once again in today’s session. Investors have been monitoring the DC debt ceiling talks as Treasury Sec Yellen’s date threat gets closer. But positive a comment from Kevin McCarthy that he sees a debt limit deal on the House floor next week put a bid in…