The View from 5th Avenue

What a week can do. Even after today’s drop, the S&P 500 is still 110 points higher than when Powell spoke post-FOMC. Markets have shifted their outlook to higher till next May (as of this morning), with rate cuts starting then. Fed heads this week have not changed that new investor expectation, but traders will always give added attention to Chairman Powell. Today he commented that the Fed is “not confident” policy is at a restrictive enough level, offsetting the dovish tilt investors had pric…

Equities finished mixed in a monotonous trading session marking the eighth consecutive up day in the S&P and ninth up day in the Nasdaq. In terms of catalyst, rather bare until next Tuesday, November 14th, when we get US CPI data. 10-year Treasury yield fell further, assisted in part by a decent auction which bolstered stocks higher in the latter half of the day. The tone of headlines around the US-China relationship continued to improve ahead of the Biden-Xi summit next week at APEC, while the…

Remember in the early days of the Zoom call boom, when invariably one of the ‘attendees’ faces would freeze, and usually in some unflattering manner to boot. I was reminded of that as I monitored the indices movements in the afternoon. Were they frozen? Not quite, but after an early dip in the red and an equally fast move into the green, equities were largely static for the balance of the afternoon. It’s been a wild few weeks (months? year?) so any calm may be welcome. Minnesota Fed President K…

It’s official- just another manic Monday… and the 6th consecutive day of gains for US equities, if only on a technicality. We can now declare that the S&P has been up six days in a row only seven total times over the course of the last 2 years. Despite an ultimate close in the green for the major US indices, today served as more of a respite from the ascension of late in mostly listless trading. Yields resumed their advance from the get and ate into equity gains for the afternoon but were ul…

The rally continues…US Stock futures rose while bond yields fell after signs of a labor-market slowdown bolstered speculation the Fed will hold policy rates steady through year-end. With the strong finish in equities to the week, in fact the best of 2023 thus far and the strongest weekly performance since November 2022. I can’t help but point out how squeezy it feels, specifically Goldman’s most shorted basket GSCBMSAL Index (+4.42%), while the most shorted baskets in Europe outperformed, the M…

US stocks were flying today as key headwinds faded. The S&P 500 continues to rebound off the October lows and was up for the fourth day in a row, posting the fifth best up day this year. Many traders saw Powell’s comments from yesterday as dovish; driving long term US treasury yields and the dollar lower. The US 10Y and US 30Y are now down 35bps and 30bps respectively over the past two weeks. All S&P sectors were up on the day, with banks one of the noticeable outperformers after Bill Gross st…

According to some statisticians, there is a 100% chance November will be an up month after the three past down months. And if this week is any indication, investors can expect that prognostication to prove accurate into year end. The SPX gained +1% today to start November, which makes +2.9% this week thus far, despite some rough earnings and mixed data. Investors were focused mostly on The Fed, which was a non-event, as JP duly delivered an unchanged target Funds rate. It was noted by analysts…

According to some statisticians, there is a 100% chance November will be an up month after the three past down months. And if this week is any indication, investors can expect that prognostication to prove accurate into year end. The SPX gained +1% today to start November, which makes +2.9% this week thus far, despite some rough earnings and mixed data. Investors were focused mostly on The Fed, which was a non-event, as JP duly delivered an unchanged target Funds rate. It was noted by analysts…

It’s scary, isn’t it? October is now complete and both equity indexes and Treasuries have posted more losses. While it is the third consecutive month for the broader indexes, it is the sixth for the 10-year yield, and investors are hoping that November will change those directions. As the 10-year hovers just below 5% (4.91% last), traders brace for another FOMC meeting and its potential to move sentiment. There is currently no expectation for any rate movement tomorrow, but economic data contin…

After a beautiful weekend in NYC that didn’t align with the calendar, Mother Nature it seems has recognized her mistake and quickly dropped the temperature back to ‘normal’ this week. Turning the clocks back next weekend will add to the autumnal feel as we depart work into the darkness. Things have been dark of late for equities, but today’s session felt like we turned back the clock, impressive gains seen throughout on volumes that were respectable at least. With the S&P having lost ground 8 o…