The View from 5th Avenue

“New highs are bullish” is the familiar refrain, and the S&P 500 has been whistling that tune every day since it finally broke (and closed) through the 4818 level last Friday. Investors have a positive outlook currently on the economy, and of the Fed’s intent, and today’s data supported the soft landing/ no landing outcome they are looking for. GDP today (Q4 advanced) was 3.3%, higher than the 2% expected. Personal Consumption of 2.8% also was a beat, and the quarterly PCE index component remai…

Rates caused some concern today after the January S&P Global preliminary PMI surprised traders to the upside across the board. Treasury rates immediately climbed higher as traders paired bets on a March rate cut even further. CME data now has the chance of a March rate cut at 40%, just one week ago it was 53%. Too make matters worse, the $61 billion 5-year Treasury note auction left a lot to be desired after poor demand. A weak bid-to-cover (2.31) and indirect bid (60.9%) pushed Treasury rates…

It seems like it’s all a waiting game at this point. For all the roller coaster fans in the crowd—what’s better than that slow, anticipatory accent to the top of the first hill? The sound of each tick of the track taking you higher and higher, the views getting better and better, the breeze stronger… New highs have usurped new highs so far this week and still… higher we climb. Earnings may have swiftly stolen the spotlight as ~15% of the S&P is slated to report this week with a like amoun…

It does seem foolish to lay so much weight on a month’s performance, but history suggests January can go a long way towards determining the performance for a full year, at least from an index perspective. After a rocky start, equities have righted the ship and today methodically added to the year’s gains. There wasn’t much of note over the weekend and that was reflected in the day’s “action.” As we mentioned earlier today, new highs are bullish and that has become the default setting of late…

Indices moved from bottom left to top right today as investors found a foot hold in the comfortable, quality, yet arguably overcrowded fan favorite names that make up the M7. The S&P and Nasdaq made all-time closing highs with Tech and Semis paving the path of least resistance higher, reinforced by signs of strong breadth. The interesting move in combination with this demonstrated strength is the rebound in yields seen over the past week – which we see as more of a counter trend rebound amid a…

Stocks rebounded today after two weaker previous sessions and the Nasdaq took the lead early. The CCMP’s performance was not altogether surprising though— the IYW (iShares Tech ETF) made a new all-time relative high yesterday and was strong again today (+2%), reconfirming tech’s long-term outperformance uptrend. The US30yr was back above the 50d moving average for the first time in 2months with the next short-term resistance level around the 4.47% area, before hitting 4.60%. Elsewhere, Brent…

US markets posted another weak day (SPX ~80% down), on the heels of Strong Econ data (US Retail Sales) which doesn’t bode well from a policy perspective, bond yields extended higher while the DXY strengthened. Seeing money being put to work in the defensives however still not seeing that level of breadth come into play and support level of 4682 (ultimate 4600) on the SPX as mentioned on our “Trading The Macro” call series still remains intact. During the afternoon we witnessed a weaker than nor…

Without checking, what’s your first thought as to where the main indices stand thus far year to date? Your guess was quite likely a lot more pessimistic than how things currently stand. Sure, the DJIA losses exceed 100bps but that’s largely due to a particular airplane manufacturer (again – see below). The US benchmark is just barely in the red while the Nasdaq more so but only modestly. Despite the mere paper cuts to the market thus far, there has been a decidedly souring sentiment to the equi…

Indices finished flat today as markets absorbed December’s CPI print and Fed officials continue to follow the breadcrumbs. The headline number came in at 3.4% in December, hotter than the expected 3.2% but not quite enough to offer a stern reality check given markets have priced in 150bps of cuts in 2024 while the dot plot sits at half that. Core inflation dipped slightly from 4.0% to 3.9% while shelter ticked up to a monthly 0.5%, the highest in three months. The knee-jerk market reaction sent…

Markets remain in a sideways trading pattern (since mid-December) but closed today towards the top end of that range. All-time closing high of 4796 on the S&P 500 is getting closer however, and perhaps a market friendly CPI tomorrow will finally push indexes through. Economic news today was light, so traders kept their focus on inflation data with an important datapoint due pre-open Thursday. Estimates are for a slight sequential increase (for both monthly and y/y) reflecting that the path towa…