The View from 5th Avenue

The S&P spent today doing its best impression of a flatline, dipping a negligible 8bps, while the Nasdaq lifted in an equal and opposite 8bps direction. Very meh. Meanwhile, the Dow decided to take the stairs down with a 61bp drop. If you were hoping for a summer rate cut, The Fed just sent your plans to voicemail as markets now don’t see a “pivot” until late October, pricing in a solitary cut for the entire year as yields marched 5–7bps higher. Geopolitics remain the ultimate “black swan” afte…

The S&P spent today doing its best impression of a flatline, dipping a negligible 8bps, while the Nasdaq lifted in an equal and opposite 8bps direction. Very meh. Meanwhile, the Dow decided to take the stairs down with a 61bp drop. If you were hoping for a summer rate cut, The Fed just sent your plans to voicemail as markets now don’t see a “pivot” until late October, pricing in a solitary cut for the entire year as yields marched 5–7bps higher. Geopolitics remain the ultimate “black swan” afte…

It was a day of headlines some true and some untrue. None more interesting than a tweet by Energy Secretary Wright claiming, “The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets” which was later deleted and White House Press Secretary saying ″The US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time”. Oil prices whipsawed following the updates, falling as much as 17% before it was retracted. Adding to the volatility…

Is it me or was the level of discussion regarding yesterday’s spring forward quite muted relative to year’s past? Maybe the harsh winter led to the nonchalant attitude but seeing a discrepancy between the time on my microwave and iPhone (far too early Sunday morning I might add) was a bit jarring. That would be a kind description for the market machinations recently. Investors continue grappling with an unexpected war and an uncertain timeline, the price of crude serving as a flag bearer of sor…

US equity markets posted modest gains today, with the S&P 500 rising 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.8%. Technology stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq 100 rallying 1.3% earlier in the session. Tech rebounded from AI concerns with Nvidia leading the Mag 7 stocks higher after Meta (+0.6%) agreed to deploy millions of Nvidia (+2.2%) processors over the next few years. In contrast, defensive sectors lagged with Utilities and Telecoms performing the weakest. Stocks trimmed some gains af…

Where to even begin today…Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggled to find their footing throughout the session, what started out as relatively quiet morning turn negative quickly with weakness in software and tech once again. There seems to be a healthy dose of AI skepticism growing in the market with the semis on track for its worst day in 3m. The SOX fell more than 4% with its next support level at the 200d (7392) which is only 2% below current level, a breakdown of this support would flash war…

It felt like markets could have taken a page from the school‑closing playbook and opted for a two‑hour delay today… A cold snap hit US equities early as Microsoft‑led megacap tech earnings pushed indices to mid‑morning lows before conditions thawed and stocks drifted impressively higher throughout the day and into the close. Still, with the ROI‑on‑AI‑capex debate heating up, sentiment froze over just enough to stall the NDX’s latest attempt at a 52‑week breakout, leaving it lagging the broade…

Fed days are normally my favorite days but with the committee voting to press pause on rate cuts in a widely expected move, there was little left up for debate and investors hit the snooze button. Despite journalist’s best efforts Chair Powell closed out his third to last Fed Day with class, offering advice to his successor to stay out of elected politics while refraining from commenting on the current turmoil. For the nerdiest of Fed watchers out there, today’s meeting shone a fresh light on t…

What started out as a relatively quiet day in terms of headlines turned quickly in the last 90 mins of the trading session. Trump announced that there was a framework in place with NATO for a future deal to take possession of Greenland. After the announcement he said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations that were due to take effect February 1s. Main US indexes immediately looked to the sky and took off with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 1.1% and 1.2%, respective…

Equities were off to the races early today. Taiwan Semiconductor’s earnings report breathed fresh life into tech names as bulls found comfort in TSMC’s outlined $56 billion in capex for 2026. The rising tide did lift peers with other semiconductor stocks rallying premarket, including ASML and NVDA, both of which TSMC is a key manufacturer. Some economic data also helped lift sentiment as jobless claims hit the lowest level since November, further evidence of a resilient labor market. However, t…