The View from 5th Avenue

A hotter-but-healthy NFP reading had something for everyone this morning. The headline figure came in at 275k versus the expected 200k but given a hefty revision downwards of January’s report and a slight increase in unemployment the jury is still out on whether today’s data will move the needle for a June rate cut. Though we may be at a temporary tie between the hawks and the doves, Powell looks like today’s winner as the employment figures broadly evidenced a strong labor market, seemingly wi…

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high today fueled by hopes of rate cuts by major central banks starting June. It started with the ECB this morning holding rates at current levels but cutting inflation forecasts for the year. US treasury yields fell briefly despite the ECB keeping their policy guidance restricted. Yields briefly recovered off their lows until Jerome Powell began to testify in front of the Senate. Traders betting on rate cuts were glad to hear him say that the Federal reserve is…

To understand the lack of excitement garnered today by J. Powell and The Fed’s Beige Book, one must only look to the markets, whose muted reaction said it all. The same message remains intact – progress has been made and there will be reductions in rates this year, just not yet. Same script, different day. Treasuries ended flattish, the DXY remained weak amid talk of a potential BOJ rate cut, and Brent remained strong due to a lack of Gaza ceasefire and Houthi attacks. Although Mr. Powell did n…

When the mighty fall, they take the rest of the lot with them. Especially when the mighty are that which is BIG Tech and you are in the context of this market… Today’s price action was a healthy retracement for the second day in a row this week with a steady fade lower and a last-ditch effort for a bounce off session lows into the close. Sniffs of China headwinds from both the macro and AAPL/AMD-related tainted sentiment overnight, spilled into the European session, and maintained its cours…

Markets today had the potential to be a nothing done given a lack of economic data with a busy calendar for the rest of the week. And while the broader indexes all fell today, volumes did not have that Monday profile. For the S&P 500, activity was +10% versus the 20-day, and was +7.9% for the Nasdaq. The fact that the S&P 500 has posted a weekly gain 16 of the last 18 weeks, a first since 1971, traders are staying engaged, even on what should have been a quiet Monday. Rates and the Fed’s outloo…

What goes up must come… down? Right?! I seem to have been led astray in grammar school physics because this bull market knows no path but the grind higher. Today’s session was sponsored by the bad news is still good news reception of deteriorating consumer sentiment, a downside surprise in ISM Manufacturing, and of course AI. A raft of Fed Speakers kept things interesting with Waller’s speech on QT drawing attention for its bias towards short-term treasuries as the Fed looks to reassess its bal…

Today was just your classic example of no news is good news. Anxiety over PCE data had traders tipping toeing through the first three days of the week but inflation figures and personal spending provided some good news for stocks. PCE inflation figures were in line with estimates across the board, with Headline PCE MoM rising 0.3% while Core PCE MoM rose 0.4%. This was the largest increase in a year. While they may not be the most dovish numbers, they did not exceed expectations which was the w…

More waiting. Ahead of Thursday/Friday’s inflation data (as well as US PCE tomorrow), investors were happy to rest and digest again today. Markets lazed, finishing slightly lower, with the Russell giving back more than half of yesterday’s gains. None of the economic data was market moving and Fed rhetoric remained on piste. Thus, the story is still one of single stocks as a bunch of earnings rolled out over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the DXY was slightly higher, while Brent was slightly low…

US markets are holding tough as the calendar heads towards another month end. Historically, the end of February brings weakness into equities, but that has not been the case this year, and indexes continue to hover just below their ATH levels. What is interesting about this dynamic is how the move higher for equities has developed while Treasury yields have jumped higher (10-yr has moved from 3.88% Feb 1st to 4.31% this month), and investors have moved back in line with the Fed’s 75bps of rate…

Quite the opposite of “Manic Monday”…Perhaps, the mania hasn’t started as we await a slew of economic data/commentary this week from Fed officials, in addition to receiving US CPI, PCE & ISM as earnings dwindle. After a mixed morning in US equities, seasonality (which we have continued to speak at nauseam) starts to turn negative as witnessed in today’s trading session. On the macro front, US Jan New Home Sales came in below estimates (661k vs. est 684K). A timely print, as our analyst Sam H…