The View from 5th Avenue

Whomever decided to create today’s market schedule must have been a basketball fan. Zero economic data, zero earnings (for today), zero Fed speakers (yes Powell and Barr spoke, but not monetarily), and zero conferences provided the best backdrop for those that are interested in March Madness (ie, lowest volume day THIS YEAR). It has been a busy week for the macro and Powell did not disappoint the bulls when the FOMC kept their three dot plot plan for 2024 and said they would slow QT at some poi…

Flight attendants – prepare for takeoff. We are again in flight and heading higher yet on impressive breadth after Captain Powell apparently provided a green light from the tower yesterday. All major indices saw follow-through strength today with the S&P clocking a 75% “up” day, and notably, the Russell leading the charge vs its larger cap index peers. As Americans, we are stereotypically a hopeful bunch, and thus, the soft-landing narrative has found itself front and center once again. A…

So what do we think….the FOMC meeting well received? With all major indices finishing in the green for another SPX all-time-high close after spending majority of the morning edging lower, I’d say so! Commentary of the Fed still being on track for a rate cut (penciling in three) reinvigorated traders, leaving rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, alongside body language from Powell during today’s FOMC meeting abated any sentiment to send us lower. With the Committee deciding it will be “appropriate to…

A pre-FOMC calm settled over markets today with muted moves on low volumes as investors wade through a concentrated calendar of central bank meetings and macroeconomic events. Indices finished flat to higher while yields slipped after a strong 20-year auction. Though tomorrow’s FOMC decision may prove to be a non-event with rates widely expected to remain unchanged for a 5th consecutive meeting, the spotlight is firmly on Powell’s press conference. Two months of warmer inflation data may not ma…

If you haven’t heard about the 5-day cleanse/fast I participated in last week, consider yourself lucky. You’d also be in the minority. I was a real health nut. But then the weekend came and the eating/drinking reverted to the mean…a little! After consecutive weeks of losses, the market looked to return to ‘normal’, and so far, so good. Although it was tech doing much of the heavy lifting. Market fundamentals weren’t looking so hot however as the equal-weight S&P was barely in the green with Na…

A third consecutive finish in the red today for US equities sets up an interesting scene for next week’s star-studded line up: Nvidia GTC Q&A call, a FOMC meeting, and a BoJ rate decision. Yields stepped up across the curve this week, jolting higher with each piece of luke-warm to hot inflation data (PPI I’m looking at you!) serving as a wakeup call to investors. The data deluge continued this morning with Empire Manufacturing coming in below all estimates while the Michigan sentiment was a tou…

Surely the various Fed Presidents are squirming in their seats a bit today as the data we received today surely raised the heat they’ll be feeling with their meeting less than a week away. The Street was prepped for PPI to come in slightly above estimates due to the CPI figures we saw on Tuesday but this may be a bit too hot to handle for the esteemed committee. The reason being is they have repeatedly said their decisions will be data-dependent and these figures a rate cut doth not make. One m…

It’s an oft-repeated phrase around these parts that new highs are bullish, and we stand by it. But sometimes those new highs make investors sheepish and/or limit willing participation. Or gravity defying levels in the marketplace encourage profit taking. This was likely the case today ahead of a triple-witching Friday and a dearth of major catalysts coming to fruition next week. Meanwhile, treasuries continued lower again still reeling from CPIs, the DXY was slightly weaker, and oil spiked on t…

If the S&P 500 isn’t hitting all-time highs are the markets even open! A hottish CPI print was no match for equities today, and there was no way the S&P 500 was going to log three down days in a row (has not happened since Jan 4th). After headline and core CPI topped forecasts for the second straight month, US treasury rates and the dollar pushed higher. S&P and Nasdaq futures briefly dropped before turning and following suit. One would have expected a move downward for main US indexes, but th…

Ahead of US CPI tomorrow, it seemed as if investors had “timid fingers” in today’s session with the implications of a June rate cut on the horizon (currently ~63% according to WIRP). Equities seemed gassed through and through, as Friday’s softness bled into the start of this week with a risk off approach in to tomorrow. Might I remind you, the weak seasonality period we’ve been calling for, has not yet filtered through, perhaps the US CPI print can be the catalyst we’ve had the watchful eye for…