The View from 5th Avenue

So maybe this is a hot take (although everything qualifies as such this week as it’s been sweltering here in NYC all week. The positive, you sweat so much during your day to day you can skip the gym?) As I was saying, while Friday or Monday holidays provide a nice long weekend, the midweek reprieve might be my preferred choice. That’s sure to spark some debate; this market is doing the same. Is the consumer softening or just being a bit more discerning? Is the economy stalling to recession or e…

It’s a bit jarring having a national holiday fall on a Wednesday. A colleague offered an innocent and well-timed ‘Happy Monday’ on our morning meeting today and I couldn’t help but think twice – for a moment I was lost in an abrupt and unfamiliar is-it-Monday-or-Friday-oh-wait-it’s Thursday train of thought. Today’s trading evidenced a very different but equally abrupt and unfamiliar move as semis lagged on the day. Perhaps a bit of mean reversion is healthy but given the now glaring degree of…

With the US markets closed tomorrow for Juneteenth, traders kept a cautious approach into the day off. Some themes were maintained however as Semis climbed to another all-time high with a Nvidia bull (+3.5%) raising his price target to $200 (if attained, would value the company at $5 trillion). But the stock market has more than seven stocks (believe it or not) and that keeps investors mindful of economic data. As the Fed decides when/ if to cut and the Street looking for one to two in 2024, ea…

If you’re not on the momentum train now, don’t worry we are only going UP! Jump aboard cause the next stop is another all-time high for the S&P 500 today, making it the 30th time this year the S&P 500 has closed at a new all-time high. Do we still have more room to go higher? According to Evercore, Goldman and Citi the light is green, and they have all revised their yearend S&P 500 estimates higher. Goldman boosted its year-end target to 5,600 while Citi upgraded US equities to overweight. But…

Stocks came out of the gates hot this morning after a cooler May CPI and another bullish tech data point— this time from Oracle (ORCL +13.3%), who spoke to AI-fueled cloud growth in their earnings beat. But a slight tap on the brakes was later applied to major indices when Powell and The Fed sent mixed messages that were net/net a nothing done. Slightly more dovish language was balanced by hawkish forecast changes. They did not cut rates (as expected), but odds moved in favor of one 25bp cut…

US indices battled, fought and clawed its way back into the green after spending majority of today’s session gassed in the red in front of May CPI data and June’s FOMC meeting tomorrow. Quick fade for major US averages post open with the DXY catching a bid coupled with some profit taking and financials making exacerbated moves off macro deterioration and rates potentially peaking. After a solid 10-year auction this afternoon, bonds sold off, with a better than average “BTC” (Bid to Cover, highe…

While Summer doesn’t officially start for another 10 days, can someone tell the market that?! Activity remains eerily muted as momentum remains key amongst the narrowing few at the lead and ahead of a fresh May CPI print plus an update to the dot plots following the FOMC meeting this Wednesday. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq secured new closing highs even in the face of our weaker-across-the-board European brethren today. Especially given the hotter jobs number from NFP on Friday, a cautious t…

While volumes remained heavily depressed, this Friday’s trading day was certainly not void of vibrant entertainment! It started early with NFP. The gasps were audible as the market took a swift and unexpected punch to the gut following a stronger nonfarm payroll number. The May print of 272k was well above consensus expectations at 185k, Wage Inflation added in an uptick from 3.9% to 4.1%- and to keep things interesting- May also saw a rise in the Unemployment Rate from 3.9-4.0%. The data con…

It was a dull day here on 5th Avenue in New York City, perhaps a small hangover after the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high again yesterday. Nvidia (-1.1%) investors seemed to be trimming slightly after closing above $3 trillion market cap yesterday and briefly taking the number two spot away from the behemoth Apple. The theme remains the same today as it has for the past year where Tech continues to dominate US markets. To put it into perspective, the Dow Jones is at a 20-year relative low w…

“Get Tech or Get Wrecked” as SPX hits 25th record this year (according to Bloomberg) …I would love to take credit for this, but I am quoting two of my esteemed colleagues and making lemonade (cough cough Ben Denney and Gerard Hug). However, doesn’t change the theme here, tech led us higher on the day in the wake of mixed data and other macro events. Let’s unpack, major US indices did not look back after a strong indicated open on the heels of China PMI, an anticipated BoC (they cut 25 bps, f…