The View from 5th Avenue

It feels sobering to write but for the first time in a long time I am starting to feel genuinely bearish. With my luck I may well be calling the bottom, but the wheels are turning and I think it’s fair to say that investors are grappling with more questions than answers, this market is not for the faint of heart, and Trump’s TACO with Iran can only hold on for so long. Today’s session began singing a very similar tune to last Monday with an early Trump tweet flipping the script to progress with…

The S&P and Nasdaq both took a distinct “risk-off” punch today, though the damage was far from democratic. While the S&P slid (-69bp) and the Nasdaq slumped (-103bp), the Equal-Weight S&P remained stubbornly flat, revealing that the day’s pain was almost entirely a function of mega-cap de-risking. Geopolitical anxiety acted as the primary overhang, with investors eyeing President Trump’s Friday deadline regarding Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Compounding the tech-heavy…

Baby steps…like, the very first steps a baby takes. Wobbly, tentative, and unsure but encouraging nonetheless, US equities gained on another day the footing wasn’t quite fully there but progress was made. For now. This crisis is far different than a tariff tete-a-tete but an exchange of peace proposals, even the mere acknowledgement of communication, is going a long way. Of course, a wayward comment or dare I say missile could scotch those efforts. While gains and volumes remain tempered, bread…

“Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?” While we were not caught in a landslide today, it does feel that—no matter how much we might like—there is “no escape from reality”. Headline risk continues to rise as the war in the Middle East oscillates between nearly over and nowhere near, depending on who you listen to and when. “Any way the wind blows” struck a familiar tune, with U.S. equities struggling to find true directional conviction—rallying off morning lows on renewed hopes of de‑esc…

‘He Said, She Said”, the 1991 ‘Rom-Com” starring none other than Kevin Bacon (I am one degree from Kevin Bacon, no big deal), involves rivaling editorialists turned talk show hosts who’s point-counterpoint differences eventually lead to attraction and sparks flying. Their multi-year on again/off again relationship comes to a head, culminating in a marriage proposal and an on-stage embrace as the movie fades to black. Fast-forward 35 years and we have real-life “he said, she said”, but presentl…

US stock futures were weak all morning, with continued concerns around intensifying war in the Middle East. That early weakness continued through the rest of the session until a late day headline pared market declines as oil sold off after Israel said it will aid the US in opening the Strait of Hormuz, providing some hope for investors hungry for signs of progress as the conflict unfolds. Crude lifted back above $100, as Isreal stepped up its attacks on Iranian oil fields, with retaliatory resp…

Highlighting how quickly a headline can shift the intraday narrative, equity futures were pointing towards a positive open first thing. But conflicts produce unexpected outcomes, and Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field allowed Iran to respond by vowing reciprocity. Crude, which was trading below $95, immediately jumped, leading to a fast drop in S&P futures. It did not get better the rest of the session. Investors are wary about higher prices and today’s main economic data release ce…

I have to say watching Nvidia’s GTC Keynote today did feel like an otherworldly experience. It wasn’t the “at least 1 trillion in revenue by 2027” line from CEO Jensen Huang that sent me spiraling but rather that at a certain point, we stopped speaking the same language. Between Vera Rubin, flops, second-generation-quantum-InifiBand-NV-linked-72s, and terabytes per second I eventually had to cry Uncle and resign myself playing catch up. I did wake up from my mind-mess, however, when Huang menti…

Has software become a defensive name amid all the hustle and bustle surrounding the Middle East conflict? I would not go that far. Has it become a safe-haven from the volatility of oil? Again, likely a bridge too far, but based on recent performance (+6.5% in March), there is an argument to be made. As headlines flash across our screens of will they or won’t they open/close the Strait of Hormuz, one thing is clear, traders just don’t know. Volumes once again were depressed more than average as…

The S&P spent today doing its best impression of a flatline, dipping a negligible 8bps, while the Nasdaq lifted in an equal and opposite 8bps direction. Very meh. Meanwhile, the Dow decided to take the stairs down with a 61bp drop. If you were hoping for a summer rate cut, The Fed just sent your plans to voicemail as markets now don’t see a “pivot” until late October, pricing in a solitary cut for the entire year as yields marched 5–7bps higher. Geopolitics remain the ultimate “black swan” afte…