The View from 5th Avenue

Happy Fednesday. The long-awaited Fed pivot officially started today with an historic 50bps rate cut, the first cut since 2020. The excitement was palpable as the kneejerk reaction was for the SPX (all-time intraday high), CCMP, small caps and Gold (record high) to ramp higher, while the DXY and yields turned lower. But that was reversed in prompt fashion during Jerome Powell’s presser as he watered down further expectations saying, “the committee is not in a rush” and “no one should look at th…

Is this what some people mean by manifesting? A cut is coming tomorrow, you can count on that. There was much consternation a cut didn’t come in July, (if investors were the crowd at a football game, Powell was the starting QB and he was getting booed LOUDLY) although tempers did cool some since. 25bps has been largely priced in for some time so what to make of 50bps now the odds-on favorite, seemingly without much to support that move? Some are clamoring for it, but it could be fool’s gold if…

We’re halfway through September and despite the overwhelming number of seasonality warnings that started the month, US equities continue to climb the wall of worry. Friday’s session saw a fresh all-time high for the S&P500 advance decline line and today was another encouraging demonstration of breadth with a 76% up day. However, the grind higher hasn’t been without its hiccups – the S&P500 has now seen four market cap swings of $2tn+ since the beginning of August! Yields slid across the curve t…

Go big or go home? Maybe if bases are loaded in the ninth inning, but if you’re Jerome Powell and the Fed the guiding mantra we’re used to is typically more to the tune of ‘data dependency’ and ‘proceeding with caution’. However, the past twenty-four hours have seen a renewed debate over whether we can expect a 25bp or a super-sized 50bp rate cut at the Fed’s Wednesday meeting. As for what has driven the dovish bout, last night former Fed President Dudley said that he sees a strong case for 50…

To 25 or 50—that is the question, and the main thing on investors’ minds currently. And while the distinction itself doesn’t feel overly critical to the market’s trajectory, there was a Nick Timiraos WSJ article today debating the merits of each. Spoiler – he doesn’t exert a strong opinion either way, but he does quote Fed officials who think 50bps would be a good start. While we await our beleaguered Fed, the SPX was busy trying to make fresh highs today (though couldn’t quite make it to the…

Today was another day we pointed to as helping fill in the blanks for what the Fed might do next week. But as always on this 9/11 anniversary, a day that feels both fresh as yesterday and yet so long ago, emotions and focus are mixed. It was an interesting day to be sure, looking early that the gloominess of the day would translate to markets, equities suffering early on despite CPI data that suggested things remain very much on track. Odds of a supersize cut decreased on the number and it’s pe…

As the nation (globe) patiently awaits tonight’s US Presidential debate, markets were mixed on the day. Wobbly start for indices at the top of the trading session, before all main averages went red late morning to only have the SPX, CCMP, and NDX finish in the green. Between the Fed’s Barr touching on Basel III, and comments out of competitors conferences had markets jumpy to start. First, with DJ SOL aka David Solomon commenting last night on Q3 being lighter than expected mainly due to fixed…

After a dismal week to start September for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq who were down 4.25% and 5.89%, respectively, all main US indexes rallied today on limited economic data in what can mostly be seen as investors buying the dip. Despite last week being the worst week since March 2024, breadth returned strong today in the S&P 500 with over 80% of companies in the green, led by Telecoms, Banks, and Semis. The debate continues around the extent of rate cuts coming next week. When we left for the wee…

A brutal end to a week that might just leave you singing “Wake Me Up When September Ends”. Major US indices closed deep in the red with the S&P500 notching its worst week in eighteen months. Rotation was the name of the game as tech names bore the brunt of the selling pressure, but the main focus of the day was this morning’s hotly awaited NFPs for August. However, the reading ended up being more fizzle than firework as those holding out hope that the data would shed some light on what we can e…

Investors remain apprehensive ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, after the medley of labor market data this morning did little to assuage fears. The ADP Employment change hit the lowest level since 2021 at 99k vs 145k expected, jobless claims came in roughly in line, but were followed by slightly better ISM services later in the morning. Net/Net = not much. Yields shot lower on the data and the shift has left investors guessing about the economic outlook (though 2s10s has been inverted for 26 mon…