The View from 5th Avenue

As US futures started wobbly and rightfully so with the geopolitical backdrop as volatile as it is,, major averages managed to finish in the green (minus the RTW). As US major averages spent majority of the morning in the red, crude continued to rise, while the tide turned late morning/early afternoon as averages began to extend to session highs. Fed speakers Bowman and Barkin did not seem to have much impact with their comments midday. Be on the watch out for Q4 seasonality starting late Octo…

There are only so many things a market can price in and today we got another stark reminder of how tenuous and volatile things remain in the Middle East. The most recent conflagration came as Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel post their targeted ground operation in Lebanon. This was the best 9 months of the year since 1997. So perhaps with month/quarter-end books tidied up, a bit of selling was going to greet the opening of Q4 regardless, this latest conflict an easy excuse. There has bee…

A modest risk off tone defined month and quarter end today until US Indices flipped the script with roughly fifteen minutes to go, righting the ship and then some as the S&P500 closed at yet another all-time high, posting the first positive September since 2019 – seasonality be damned! Powell took to the podium early afternoon and though his pre-prepared remarks broadly reiterated what we heard from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month, the Q&A portion sparked a stark sell off when the Fed chai…

“To get rich is glorious.”

Yet another all-time high for the S&P500 today (the 42nd so far this year to be exact) and Micron Technology wins the MVP award after a strong beat and raise inspired an all-abroad AI rally that saw the SOX close well into the green (+3.5%). We started the day firmly on the front foot thanks to overnight news of further stimulus out of China (a $142bn injection into the state banks no less) ahead of their weeklong holiday. Oil slid starkly for a second session, spurred by a report from the Fina…

There was a little less enthusiasm to go around today after yesterday’s 41st record close for the year, with stark underperformance by the Russell and volumes that remained paltry. Without any real domestic news to ponder (new home sales weren’t narrative shifting), it was the international headlines overnight that had the most impact on the sentiment, delivering a dash of dovishness – Chinese and Swedish rate cuts and a hard slowdown in Australia’s CPI. Treasuries and Brent both saw some profi…

With the FOMC and triple-witch/ S&P rebalance out of the way, markets have been trying to draw on the positive (a fresh 50bps cut to rates) to punch to new highs. But the little economic data today reminded traders why the Fed wanted to cut by that amount as the Consumer Confidence datapoint fell to 98.7 from August’s revised higher 105.6. Within the survey, consumers were concerned about harder to find jobs and slower salary increases, even as the job market remains healthy. A view that the Fe…

The bulls are running lose in the streets, just ask the residents of North Attleborough Massachusetts. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs once again while the Nasdaq 100 (19,852) is fighting to get back above the 20,000 level not seen since July. This morning’s economic data caused some worry after S&P Global reported September US PMI data. While services PMI (55.4 vs est. 55.2) came in slightly higher than estimates, manufacturing PMI (47 vs est. 48.6) m…

How’s that for a Triple Witching Friday, Sir Isaac Newton once said “what goes up, must come down”. In theory we shouldn’t be surprised at gravity by now, should we?! As mentioned on our Trading The Macro Call series (replay in link) we look for signs to confirm the SPX breakout and S&P futures are just shy of their July highs, so with main averages in the red for majority of this quarter’s “TWF” not much to be too alarmed on. As mentioned, volumes were elevated as expected a staggering +136% a…

Powell has delivered the 50bp cut traders wanted and they in turn added to their risk. Markets responded well today to the thought that the Fed could actually provide the soft landing that investors have been fretting about since 2022. Green in the index futures greeted participants as they awoke this morning, and that strength never let up. At the end of the session, the S&P 500 sat at a new ATH closing high, and the Nasdaq had its best day of performance since August 8th. The third horseman,…