The View from 5th Avenue

For the Middle English aficionados reading this, you will no doubt recognize Geoffrey Chaucer’s proverb from the poem ‘Troilus and Criseyde’, “But at the laste, as everything hath ende.” To the casual observer, this translates to ‘all good things must come to an end’, apropos to the recent 11% move in the past 12 sessions. While the S&P 500 Index closed slightly higher on Thursday, the incredible momentum seems to have stalled, for now, as global markets continue to absorb the barrage of headl…

“Hey Siri, play John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’”

The US session proved once again that the equity market is essentially a golden retriever that can ignore a house fire if someone mentions a treat. We did, however, just see the NDX log its tenth consecutive green session—something it hasn’t achieved since 2021 and only the 14th occurrence since 1986. In 13 of those 14 instances, the index finished the year higher, with an average gain of roughly 25%. That’s an encouraging historical signal. Adding to the optimism, equity bulls received their t…

While Rory McIlroy was busy securing his second consecutive Green Jacket in a masterclass of Sunday composure, Wall Street woke up today trying to avoid its own geopolitical triple-bogey of Hormuz havoc. Markets initially recoiled as failed U.S.-Iran negotiations and a looming blockade sent oil prices gushing back above $100 per barrel, reigniting the specter of 4% headline inflation. However, the afternoon session saw a sharp reversal after President Trump suggested Tehran might be ready to de…

The positive rhetoric emanating from Washington regarding the ceasefire continues and markets remained bid in expectation that an ultimate solution will be agreed upon. While the scene remains dynamic, the S&P 500 gained 62bps and Nasdaq 83bps, building upon yesterday’s solid gains and keeping the exchanges above the moving averages they broke through yesterday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq did test their 50d ma supports early (6765 and 22520 respectively) but held after headlines of direct talks bet…

Sighs of relief were heard across The Street today as equities surged and investors enjoyed a bit of a solace from the recent turbulence. The rally was triggered by a two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran overnight, despite underlying skepticism regarding the deal’s durability. The S&P, Dow, and the Nasdaq all advanced, but it was The Russell that enjoyed the most support. Geopolitical headlines dominated as Brent crude plunged 11.8% in anticipation of improved traffic throu…

“a whole civilization will die tonight”

US stocks recovered all their earlier losses as volatility returned to Wall Street following President Trump’s prime-time Wednesday address. The speech on Iran left investors with little hope for a quick resolution to the conflict but Trump said he was still seeking a diplomatic agreement. The S&P 500 rose just 0.1% after slumping as much as 1.5% in early trading Thursday and the Nasdaq 100 was only up 0.1%. Stocks pared earlier losses following a report that Iran is drafting a protocol with Om…

With Trump set to speak this evening, and multiple headlines intraday, one can say we see potential to an off-ramp. It seems deescalation talks are looming; however it is April Fools and Trump reminded us in schoolyard fashion he’s still committed to “blasting Iran into the oblivion or stone age” if the SoH remains unopened. Instead of keeping up with every headline, lets just stick to the facts given the past three weeks have felt April Foolish. More green across the screen, after the stronges…

Today’s trading session saw a sharp broad-based rally/rotation across U.S. equities triggered by comments from Iranian President, Masoud Pezeskhian, regarding a potential de-escalation of regional conflict, causing the S&P 500 Energy Index to reverse gains and slide as much as 1.2% (led by Occidental (-2.0%) and Chevron (-1.8%). Conversely, the prospect of lower fuel costs and a stabilized macro environment sparked a massive relief rally in high-beta and “fuel-hungry” sectors: Airlines jumped 5…