The View from 5th Avenue

And on the third day, they rest. At least in Washington. Tariffs have been the talk of the town this week. But with Canada and Mexico toting the line, and no rush for a conversation with China, nothing new was announced today. That let investors focus on economic data, fed speakers, and the busy earnings calendar (roughly 25% of the S&P 500 report this week). With the Fed in pause mode (and unsure of tariff effects), it feels like economic data has taken a backseat for the short term, including…

Much ado about Trump tariffs has been the name of the game this week and so far, we’ve learned that if you mess with the bull, you just might get the horns. While yesterday was focused on Mexico and Canada, headlines today centered on the world’s second largest economy: China. Beijing responded to Trump’s 10% tariffs with a Google probe and tariffs of their own, though Trump has warned that the measures are merely an “opening salvo”. This morning also brought labor market data with JOLTS showin…

Tariffs talks, dominate headlines once again, arguably during the busiest week of earnings, as January was a long year! We are almost at the point where it’s hard to keep up (if not there already there). Negotiation tactics (threats) seemed to cause intraday volatility as we spent all day in the red. The DXY started on a tear while premarket futures were in the red due to…I am sure you can guess by now? Yes! Tariff Talks…again and markets never seemed to recover to the green as traders decip…

Stocks were mostly higher for most of the session, buoyed by personal consumption rising to 4.2% vs estimates of 3.2%– perhaps an important signal to the market that the consumer remains on firm footing. Inflation concerns continue however, as the GDP price index for Q4 came in at +2.2% (vs. the Street +2.5%), although core PCE was more in-line at +2.5%. Late in the day, the market responded negatively to a headline that the US was prepared to move forward with 25% tariffs with Mexico and Cana…

Fed days are my favorite days and while that might make me a mega-nerd today turned out to be a bit of a disappointment. The Fed voted to pause on further rate cuts, with Powell stating that the committee feels “policy is meaningfully less restrictive than before cuts”. At the press conference, the Fed Chair danced around Trump tariff trepidation and addressed adjustments that were made to the Committees statement. At face value, the adjustments would indicate concerns over rising inflation, wh…

US equities displayed their resilience today by clawing their way back from Monday’s DeepSeek slaughter in style. Tech stocks staged quite a rebound as investors scrambled to get back involved ahead of what is expected to be a decent set of earnings starting tomorrow with ASML before the EU open, and Meta (META +2.2%), Microsoft (MSFT +2.9%) and Tesla (TSLA +0.24%) reporting after the close. Nvidia (NVDA +9%) recovered a little more than half of yesterday’s lost chunk and there were also strong…

The Chinese AI startup Deepseek shocked global markets today following the release of its new AI model that apparently runs on inferior chips while achieving top performance at a fraction of the cost of competitors. The release prompted a massive sell off in AI-linked tech and energy stocks. Most notably the AI chip darling Nivida (-16.8%) wiped off $589b in market-cap in one day. To put the severity of the Nvidia sell off into perspective, ExxonMobil’s (largest US oil and gas company) total ma…

To the victor go the spoils and so far, the new/old President has been using that victory pen like a riposte, poking and prodding the markets with the flurry of EOs, and topping the week off with a virtual appearance at Davos today. Today’s target included the NIH and a freezing of meetings, hiring and other such things. One client proffered “it keeps things interesting if nothing else.” That it does. Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet session, earnings from various pockets of the equity uni…

We are three days into the new administration in Washington and markets are becoming reacquainted with President Trump’s announcements. The initial severity of tariff talk has been muted (away from the fx market) as markets decide to wait and see what actually goes into effect, evidenced by President Trump’s overnight comments that 10% tariffs on Chinese/ European exports could happen. Futures did not hiccup pre-open, but rather stayed green. Away from politics, there is little economic data th…

As the 47th President of the United States was sworn into office yesterday…again, global markets seemed to give him a warm welcome back. President Trump wasted no time getting back to work signing a flurry of executive orders into action (including pardons) and “negotiation tactics” (or threats depending how you look at it) symbolizing commencement to part 2 of his administration officially being underway. Tariff implications to Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1 dominated headlines early on, causing…