The View from 5th Avenue

I.See.Red, as US equities behaved in a very risk off / de-grossing manner for most of today’s trading session. Main averages ended mixed to down as the globe gears up for Nvidia earnings post market tomorrow which can take us either way. Regarding the de risk mannerisms, there are signs that continue to emerge and/or crystalize which further the narrative. 1) Rotation towards more defensive/cyclical stocks, 2) Short term downside risk to SPX as it continues to trade sideways, 3) US Momentum Ind…

It was a rare weekend where rest and rejuvenation were the focus. Light on the booze, heavy on the workouts with some Sunday home cooking to round things out. (Pictures of said dish available upon request.) Come into Monday morning feeling revitalized and raring to go – only for a colossal coffee spill first thing and the positive vibes are nearly derailed. Some Clorox wipes quickly stepped in to mitigate the damage though; the market could use a few wipes after being derailed some lately. Afte…

It feels like flu season is all anyone has been talking about, or coughing about, the past few weeks. Equities had a health-check of their own today, giving back gains after two straight days of record highs. Another day of bad breadth (64% down day) paired with the lowest volume of the last two weeks saw the S&P 500 (-.43%) and Nasdaq 100 (-.48%) down as a disappointing forecast from the world’s biggest retailer shocked investors, sending shares down as much as 10% pre-market. Though Walmart r…

When traders left last night, headlines from President Trump were scrolling about 25% tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semis, starting April 2nd. With that overhang, S&P futures started lower this morning as investors parsed the news. But like yesterday’s market action, equities moved higher throughout the session with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing with new all-time closing highs. Economic data this week is minor except for Friday’s PMI and University of Michigan (and more importa…

Records were made to be broken. It wasn’t until the final hour of today’s session that equities forged a path higher with the S&P500 and Nasdaq making all-time highs as investors chose to look on the bright, risk-on side. The US/Russia meeting of the minds in Riyadh offered hope for an impending peace deal in Ukraine, combating the persisting, ever growing macro headwind of geopolitical uncertainty. Gold joined in on the all-time highs party as well, already +12.6% year to date with one bulge b…

Today’s session started on a rather apprehensive, though perhaps now familiar, foot after Trump emphatically tweeted about reciprocal tariffs. However, as economic data rolled in investors shrugged off the uncertainty and equities melted higher. Treasuries saw hefty gains as well thanks to an arguably misleading PPI print. The headline YoY figure came in at 3.5% versus 3.3% expected, while the prior reading was revised higher to 3.5% as well – not to mention the data echoes yesterday’s hotter C…

The US stock rally was already on shaky ground due to tariffs and an uncertain outlook about artificial intelligence. Add a hot inflation print to the mix (CPI m/m 0.5% vs cons 0.3%///CPI y/y 3.0% vs cons 2.9%), and the market limped into the start of trading with equities broadly lower, and bond yields surging. Fed officials had reiterated their stance to be patient with any further rate cuts, and with today’s inflation data bulls will be left looking elsewhere for growth prospects. 10 year…

Markets struggled to find conviction in either direction today on the eve of another important CPI print as volumes remained lower on the S&P 500. Jerome Powell stayed true to form and did not provide any reason for markets to lose their tranquility during his testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee. It was more of the same from the Fed Chair as he reiterated the lack of need to adjust rates lowers due to a strong labor market, which is “not a source of significant inflationary press…

Quiet musings from a Dallas Cowboys fan, as he watches their blood rival Philadelphia Eagles lift another SB trophy, while your team remains a dumpster fire…sigh…

Earnings continue to be the name of the game today with 25% of the S&P500 reporting this week, but there was a notable change in tune this morning as some major names slid on lackluster results. Arm (ARM -3.3%), Ford (F -7.5%) and Qualcomm (QCOM -3.7%) joined Uber (UBER +8.6%), Google (GOOG +0.01%) and FMC (FMC -0.72%) on the notable list of those whose earnings have disappointed in the past few days. Deep losses in Ford’s EV division weighed on shares, ARM’s lackluster guidance overshadowed re…