So, you want to write ‘The View’ (said nobody ever) on a late August Monday as two-week vacations kicking off in earnest and the highlight of the week coming at the very end straight from the mountains of Wyoming. I am planning an upcoming holiday myself so maintaining focus will be of the utmost importance. The focus lately has been on buying stocks, as a very wobbly market has suddenly gotten sturdy, the S&P logging its 8th consecutive up day with breadth strength as well. The lighter volumes…

We’re now halfway through an August that has been anything but sleepy. Though if the OOO bounce backs are any indication, particularly in conjunction with the VIX closing back below 15, we’re certainly on calmer footing heading into the back half of the month. ‘Reassuring’ is the word I continue to use to describe this week’s economic data (inline CPI and PPI, robust retail sales), but truthfully it feels rather apt considering two weeks ago we were hearing calls for an emergency 50 bps rate cu…

The US rebound continued today and after today’s close, the S&P 500 is back above where it ended July. The end of July coincided with a recession scare via the jobs data, which also pushed trading positions to be unwound in dramatic fashion, but with the VIX back to 15.15, volatility has subsided. This week has been important in calming those hard landing fears, first with the PPI and CPI, and then with today’s Retail Sales which rose 1% versus the expected 0.4%. The data shows the consumer rem…

To Cut or not to cut? 25bps or 50bps? 100bps by Year-End? So many questions and unknowns remain, as we are in limbo, technically speaking we aren’t in a recession albeit the SAHM-Recession rule was triggered with NFP week before last, the conundrum of data is head-scratching to say the least. Nonetheless inflation is cooling, first time CPI dips below 3% since March of 2021 to 2.9%, however essentials such as Car Insurance, Transportation, Hospital Services and Rent remain elevated. As far as…

After consecutive trading days with dismal volume, main US indexes were boosted higher thanks to a welcomed soft PPI print this morning. We were confident that the economic data this week would be underneath a microscope with data prints determining the outcome of the market for the day. Today confirms that theory as core PPI YoY came at 2.4% (est. 2.6%) for July, sending US treasury rates lower and Indexes higher. We shouldn’t get out over our skis just yet as tomorrow morning brings, more imp…

We needed a breather after last week and this most August-ian of Mondays provided exactly that. A trickling effort from the markets to start the week, but this level of calm is unlikely to persist throughout the week; key economic data is set to come. Indices recorded a 4th straight week of losses upon Friday’s conclusion; a 5th would be the first since in over 2 years. And while on its surface the S&P gave back little last week, damage had surely been done. Broadly speaking, it wasn’t a great…

What a week it’s been, if you told traders on Monday that the S&P 500 would finish the week nearly flat a majority would have been very skeptical. But after a shaky start to the week, main US indexes shook off the major worries from last Friday’s employment data and the unwinding of the carry trade as cooler heads prevailed over the one-off data. To put the overaction into perspective the VIX reached levels above 60, levels not seen since the start of the Pandemic and before that the Global Fin…

‘honestly, it’s been one of the craziest/busiest summers of my entire career.’ -RP (only the client will know, assuming they read this)

The battle between macro and micro lived on today as investors digested a slew of underwhelming earnings against a backdrop of volatility implosion, carry trade pain, an election, and Middle East tensions. The one saving macro grace was communication from the BoJ reassuring investors there would be no further tightening. But the calm did not last. Investors saw the writing on the wall of a cooling economy via the earnings disappointments and CEO commentary. Further, US treasuries slipped past t…

Turn Around Tuesday kept its name as indexes moved higher after yesterday’s carnage. But only a 1% gain for the main indexes (after a 3% drop Monday) may keep traders questioning the actual strength of today’s move. Funds did take advantage of Monday’s weakness though as Goldman’s desk saw its highest one-day net buying in 5 months (per Bloomberg). Japan showed similar traits as the Nikkei rallied 10% overnight, setting up a positive start for the US. There was a lack of Fed speakers (none) and…