What’s left to say that ASML has already said for us. Thanks to a “technical error”, the company surprised investors with an early release of their Q3 results and they were not pretty. Q3 bookings missed estimates (Euros 2.63bn vs estimate of 5.39bn!) and the company cut its 2025 guidance. Many consider chip equipment manufacturers to be a leading indicator for the semiconductor sector and if this report is a precursor for the chip industry, investors will begin to worry about demand in the chi…

In 1492, Christopher Columbus sailed the wide ol’ blue…that was the saying right ? In any event, Indigenous People’s/Columbus Day has brought forth yet another ATH in the SPX in sleepy fashion as US equities ended in the green. With bond markets closed alongside Canada for the Canadian Thanksgiving, equity markets picked up right where they left off from Friday’s 88% up day. Stronger breadth reconfirming the recent/current breakout and bringing the 5th up week in a row. We also received further…

This bull market just won’t quit. In a way today was more of the same given both the S&P500 and the Dow closed at new highs as the S&P500 is now boasting +22% so far this year and 45 all-time highs (but who’s counting anymore). However, today’s session held some important developments as investors cleared two hurdles that help to pave the path of least resistance to the upside. The first came in the form of US Bank earnings, a typical indicator of overall consumer health and deal appetite which…

The trajectory was never going to be diagonal, but the overall direction for now remains. Inflation continues to be a hot topic and today’s CPI had some hotness to it. Core m/m and y/y (+0.3% and +3.3%) both were worse sequentially. But when you include the food and energy components, the figures were inline (m/m) or slightly better (y/y) versus August’s. Given the mixed result, markets largely took the new datapoint in stride. Fed heads have been busy this week tampering estimates for another…

When you hit the 44th fresh record of the year, it takes a bit of shine off the excitement. Still the S&P achieved another new all-time high today, up 66% from the October 2022 lows. As long as the very short-term support at 5674 holds, there is really nothing bearish about this price action. That said, Treasuries saw continued selling pressure w/yields spiking 5-6bp. Though FOMC minutes didn’t really deviate from recent narrative, the market is now pricing in 45bp worth of Fed cuts at the fina…

Pretty mundane session for equity markets with all that is going on, from Amazon Prime day to natural disasters (hurricaneS), to geopolitical tensions (still), to further commentary around China stimulus and for a cherry, countdown to US elections! With that said and all considered still a rather mundane session as SPX volumes a few basis points off its 20-day average, main averages were mixed to start after ticking up and holding on to intraday gains. Given the CPI data to come on the back hal…

Absent any economic news and a few days before earnings for the third quarter kick off, investors were left to further interpret last week’s data and what it means for the current rate cut regime. As things currently stand, the expectation (hope?) has been diminished from the high-water mark for cuts. With two meetings left, fed futures have gone from another jumbo cut next month and a little more in December, to less than 50 overall. This new reality (for today at least) had yields across the…

Caution! Jobs may be hot! Traders were stunned this morning after payroll data showed the biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls (+254k vse +150k) since March and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. We have officially landed back in good news is good news territory as stocks spiked after the release of the report and held onto their gains for the remainder of the day. The underappreciated Russel was the leader of the day, after years of trading at a discount to the S&P 500, hopes of a so…

Traders have been singing their own version of Stuck in the Middle With You this week, as the Middle East conflicts have created a bigger reason to wait for the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow morning. Volumes in the S&P 500 have been declining all week with today being the lightest (S&P 500 -17% versus the 20d) as investors have watched the CME data move from a 50:50 chance of another 50bps Fed cuts in November, to the current 34.6%. Economic data is the driver for those changes as bot…

As US futures started wobbly and rightfully so with the geopolitical backdrop as volatile as it is,, major averages managed to finish in the green (minus the RTW). As US major averages spent majority of the morning in the red, crude continued to rise, while the tide turned late morning/early afternoon as averages began to extend to session highs. Fed speakers Bowman and Barkin did not seem to have much impact with their comments midday. Be on the watch out for Q4 seasonality starting late Octo…