The View from 5th Avenue

The propulsion higher for the US markets continued and if it was not for the final tick in S&P 500/ Nasdaq, both indexes would have cleared their old all-time highs. Iran seems to be in the rearview mirror for traders and tariffs seem to be far away (even though July 9th will be here before we know it), and that has cleared the way for the equity markets. Granted the end of the month/ quarter is Monday and there is some positioning involved, but if the S&P 500 closes Monday at today’s level, it…

Futures were steady when traders arrived at the desk, a welcomed relief from the recent market volatility, especially on the back of yesterday’s broad gains that had us within a few percentage points from all-time highs. The market continued that sentiment throughout today’s session, struggling to find direction and ultimately ending little changed amid weak breadth (72% down) on the lowest volume in two and a half weeks. Crude moved higher, hovering around $65, rates were stable with the 2-ye…

A strong risk on tone prevailed in today’s session with the S&P500 closing at its highest level since late February. Oil fell another 5%, bringing its two-day decline to 15% and settling around $68. Despite Israel’s early vows to “respond forcefully” and warning that “Tehran will shake”, investors were reassured by the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The change in sentiment was also reflected in gold as the commodity slipped over 1%, but we’re not quite out of the woods on the Israel/Iran conflict. Yiel…

When a market can log gains pretty much across the equity spectrum in the face of fresh US involvement in the Middle East , fair to say we’re dealing with a resilient market. Or perhaps a complacent one? Despite the US’s newly launched attack on the Iran nuclear sites and their returning fire at US military bases located within Qatar, stocks were able to end a 3-day losing streak. A spike in oil and just general concern about an escalation with multiple new entrants has for the time being quick…

As US markets ready for closure to honor Juneteenth, US equities exemplified some resiliency today, however as we neared the last hour of trading, with comments from Powell, all three major averages erased gains, bringing us to a mixed finish. Geopolitics alongside the Fed dominated headline sentiment early and onward as Trump’s commentary around Iran ultimately bolstered US equities. Equities faded in risk-off fashion heading into The Fed while maintaining gains as rates were left unchanged (a…

Pressure on US equity markets persisted today as the latest conflagration in the Middle East continued into a fifth day, though the dynamic between Israel and Iran didn’t really shift dramatically. Investors waited as The White House debated its next move (whether to lend its B2 bombers and Massive Ordnance Penetrator or pursue a resolution to the conflict), but it seemed like President Trump leaned towards the latter. A semi -safe haven trade emerged as the DXY (+0.8%) and Brent (+4.8%) ralli…

Global markets took a calming breath on Monday as fears of a broader Israel-Iran conflict diminished. Iran has signaled openness to de-escalation and potentially resuming nuclear talks with the US, provided Washington avoids joining Israeli military actions. President Trump acknowledged Iran’s desire to negotiate but declined to comment on potential U.S. military involvement. It was lovely to see a bounce-back for the SPX Index (+.94%) and a pullback in the VIX Index (-8%) after Friday’s mini-…

Global markets took a calming breath on Monday as fears of a broader Israel-Iran conflict diminished. Iran has signaled openness to de-escalation and potentially resuming nuclear talks with the US, provided Washington avoids joining Israeli military actions. President Trump acknowledged Iran’s desire to negotiate but declined to comment on potential U.S. military involvement. It was lovely to see a bounce-back for the SPX Index (+.94%) and a pullback in the VIX Index (-8%) after Friday’s mini-…

Investors remain alert to any pickup in inflation due to the Liberation Day tariffs. But so far, the data via CPI and PPI is showing inflation remains behaved. With tariff headlines constant, today’s PPI read was weaker than expected. For y/y it came in at 3% versus April’s 3.2% and the monthly read was also better than estimated. Treasury yields dropped on the news with the 10-yr moving to 4.37% versus yesterday’s closing level of 4.47%. Currencies were also on the move as the Dollar (DXY -79b…

If you blinked, you might’ve missed the sector rotation, geopolitical flare-up, and a rapid selloff that defined today’s session. Markets snapped a 3-day winning streak amid heightened volatility as traders digested mixed signals from US-China trade talks and fresh inflation data. Despite both trade ambassadors agreeing to a framework aimed at reviving last month’s Geneva deal futures only had a brief spike, displaying investor skepticism of tangible progress. Hours later, Trump declared the de…