The View from 5th Avenue

Groundhog day? As we officially start another earnings season, it seems all eyes continue to be trained on tariff talks and the volatile relationship between the White house and Jerome Powell. Trump took to the TV to state, he still has no plans for replace Powell, but he may reconsider that position if the DOJ finds evidence of fraud in the massively overbudget “renovation” of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Markets swung broadly all morning, seemingly found footing around the close in Eu…

June CPI was the focus of investors this morning, as many were looking to today’s data to gauge the effect of tariffs. Core CPI m/m was slightly lower than expected, rising 0.2% while headline CPI m/m was in line, rising 0.3%. Yields fell immediately on the data while US equity indexes rose to the morning highs. Once the knee jerk reactions settled a more concerning picture started to take shape for investors. Despite the CPI readings coming in below estimates, all CPI categories had increased…

One could’ve anticipated a proper Manic Monday given Tariff headlines to conclude the weekend (and today intraday), but TACO heads prevailed to only have a rather mundane Monday with a splash of M&A announcements, perhaps the calm before the start of earnings and slew of eco data this week. With that said, Major averages opened down, spending majority of the morning in the red (ex. the RTY Index-Russell 2,000) before clawing back into positive territory post EU close, firmly holding onto gains…

Just prior to heading into H2, our inimitable Charts team highlighted that July is a historically favorable one and that is bearing out as we get a third of the way through the month. But a funny thing is happening on the way to new all-time highs that we saw today. Investors are ditching the stocks said ATHs were built on the back of in favor of the year-to-date laggards. Breadth had been somewhat encouraging of late but the 2nd half performance chase is on and investors are looking for diamon…

Letters from Washington continue to hit the mailroom, but today’s batch did not have as much impact as Monday’s. The Philippines and Iraq were the headliners of the seven released, and markets took them in stride. Except for the initial drop Monday at noon, investors have taken a patient approach to the initial July 9th tariff target date (now pushed to August 1st) and continue to assess where the current market sits. Indexes made all-time highs last week and are not far from those levels while…

It was a quiet, mixed session with the S&P undecided for most of the day. It finally settled just slightly lower, and the Dow ended up where it started the morning -–lagging the other major indices, down 37bps. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher ahead of this week’s auctions and the dollar was stronger with the DXY up 5bps, apart from the Australian dollar, which rallied after the RBA held rates. Brent climbed 80bps, while gold slipped 94bps, and Bitcoin ran 80bps. Meanwhile, Trump threaten…

Investors weren’t given much time to digest the 150 million hot dogs that were consumed in the US over the weekend before the tariff volatility kicked in (shoutout to Joey Chestnut who ate 70.5 dogs in 10 mins). Just two days before the July 9th deadline the administration sent out tariff letters to multiple trading partners who have yet to agree to a trade deal, stating specific levies on imports that will take effect August 1st. Japan and South Korea were the two most notable trading partners…

The S&P 500 notched a fresh all-time high today, with tech leading the charge. While Tesla remains the biggest laggard among the MAG7 in 2025 (Meta, by contrast, is up 23% YTD), the EV maker was the top gainer in the S&P 500 today despite reporting vehicle deliveries that missed consensus estimates. Sales fell 13% year-over-year, but the decline was smaller than feared, triggering a relief rally. On the macro front, private payrolls were the key data point, showing a surprise decline of 33K ver…

As one of our resident Canadians, I feel it’s my responsibility to kick off today by wishing everyone a very Happy Canada Day! Now that I’ve paid my tribute to the sultans of syrup, let’s dive into the nitty gritty of this bumpy trading session.

June goes out like a lion as US equities traded in a tight side-ways range most of the session before a last hour rally launched the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high (+.52%). The Index has now rallied 28% off its April 7th lows and 2Q25 was the best performing quarter since December 2023. Tech and growth names remain strong, balanced by watchful eyes on upcoming economic data (US jobs data Thursday) , Fed signals, and geopolitical momentum (July 9th trade deadline). Any pronounced deterior…