Daily Snapshot

A little something I write each year now, so thought as no snapshot for a day or two this may be so good light reading.

Good morning all – just before the lunches kick in and the red lights go on….

So there we have it, I estimate 220 or so Daily Snapshot’s for 2023 from the team at Redburn Atlantic and here we are at the last. Firstly we hope they remain useful, insightful and on occasion (when Quicky writes them) entertaining. Secondly, putting them together has been rewarding, mostly entertaining and on very rare occasions quite tedious! I’ve certainly had to get myself clued up on Yield curves, bond auctions, inflation data and all other sources of macro indicators because 2023 has bee…

Here we go, in the famous words of Delia Smith at half time of a Norwich game – ‘Let’s be havin’ you!’ A blockbuster 48 hours awaits us and we spent most of the day patiently impatiently waiting for what Mr Powell and the Fed have to say for next year. A 99% probability of no change in Fed funds rate today (….So you’re saying there is a chance?!) and as well as a Powell press conference, focus will be on new staff economic projections and the ‘dot-plot’ of FOMC members’ views on future level of…

The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is facing a crucial vote in parliament on the Rwanda bill this evening and with his popularity now as low as Liz Truss (an approval rating of -25.4, according to Conservative Home) the infamous Lettuce which outlasted Truss has, in some parts of social media, been resurrected to challenge the PM’s longevity. The big risk is that with a fairly evenly split Conservative party the bill could be voted down in parliament this evening. Such a defeat (the first of thi…

The two week countdown to Christmas is on. You can almost hear the winding down of gears. Bloomberg green dots increasingly turning to red from midday, investors having a look at portfolios and judging whether to make any last minute changes and a frantic rush to find Christmas presents. I certainly know which one is my biggest problem in that list! There will still be liquidity this week though (in every sense) and while markets made a tepid start there are some possible fireworks on the hori…

It’s Christmas Jumper day so it’s always an awkward moment when you compliment someone on their Christmas jumper then realise they aren’t partaking in the event and their wardrobe is just a bit more festive than most. A few very good showings today in the Redburn Atlantic office and I particularly liked Nick Glydon’s which came with jingling bells so I knew when he was close. Keeping Nick Glydon and the charts team close is very important at this time of year when there is a bit of a lull in co…

Christmas is coming and in a clear sign that we’re in a bull market once again, the £395 pound ‘Ultimate Father Christmas Hat’ is completely sold out. Santa must be getting a good deposit rate at the Royal Bank of Lapland! Today was another day where there weren’t too many noticeable parts moving but the path of least resistance was noticeably back higher once again. The Stoxx 600 closed up 60bps with a broad based rally with a number of indices in Europe (Spain, Italy, Germany) still at new al…

I’m not much of a wordsmith but I was surprised that I had never heard the Oxford University Press word of the year used in context. The word is ‘Rizz’ an apparent abbreviation of Charisma and a colloquial word defined as style, charm, or attractiveness (not to be confused with Rizo aka Phil Risley our Algorithmic trading guru though stylish and charming he is). Maybe that is me confined to the Millennial bucket forever when this is clearly a Gen Z world we’re all living in. I’m probably using…

Don’t take our weekends from us…. A broadening out of the rally on the surface is good, allows for more companies to share in the higher stock prices, and we are seeing it with the Russell 2k taking the reins from the Nasdaq & SPX (up 4.7% in 2 days is the second best relative performance this year) which seems reasonable. Unless you are of the mind that seasonality rules, and the Mag7 will/should not go down the last part of this 4th quarter. I just wonder how this market will respond to a li…