KC O'Rourke

Whether it’s wrapping your head around rising school VATs or eyeing the latest chatter about a potential UK home sale tax, it’s worth remembering a quirky little moment from the July 2024 general election: Labour’s win in Hendon by just 15 votes—the slimmest majority in Parliament. That tiny handful of ballots flipped the seat and nudged the broader political tide. Proof that yes, every little bit counts—even the smallest tick in a box… It’s a sentiment that resonates on the desk this week too…

And all the roads we have to walk are winding. And all the lights that lead us there are blinding. There are many things that I would like to say to you… And the start of Q2 earnings starting out as fierce as any I can remember (and I’ve been around a while) is one of them. What a Quarter. We got the first two Mag 7’s firing out of the gate with a pair of +10 percenters in Microsoft and Meta, and then a ton more movers in Rolls Royce up another 7%, Safran +4%, Socgen +3.5%, Argenx +13.6%, Rob…

Well that’s a wrap on Thursday which means two things, a) the weekend is just around the corner and b) our midweek charts has hit the tape with the latest gems including: The S&P just completed its fastest-ever round trip: a 20% drawdown and full recovery to new highs. 90% of all-time highs occur within five days of another. Q2 closed out with the index up 10.6 and historically after a 10% quarter the next is up 85% of the time. On average, the first two weeks of July have been the most bullish…

Market digesting all news positively is a red flag to me, but let’s go through it.. The dollar dropped 0.5% to its lowest level since April 2022 (look at that GBP above 1.37) while treasury yields eased across the curve as the market is anticipating faster interest-rate cuts (63bps priced in for this year, up from 51 last week), following a wsj report suggesting Trump may accelerate his nomination for the next Federal Reserve chief to September. Then US consumer spending grew in the first quar…

European equity markets experienced a rare quiet day with no major developments since the ceasefire’s been announced and the market taking a breather at these all-time highs, especially as Oil prices keep calm. (For those keeping track SPX resistance is at 6147 the Feb intraday high and NDX above 22222 today, the all-time high). NATO Summit was the news today as leaders backed a plan to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP – 3.5% core defense, 1.5% related investments in infrastructure and cy…

I looked my 8-year-old square in the eyes and told him he’d lose screen time, and we’d return the skateboard if he didn’t (fill in the blank really) clean his room or whatever super important task he was ignoring me on. A couple shirts maybe were put away, toys reformed in a separate similar pile but chalk up the lesson as a complete nothing done and my guy perhaps discovering new ways to teach me ‘the dad who cried wolf’ at some point.. Now, as the equity markets regain their footing fuelled…

Oh, the Joys of writing the Snapshot when the Nasdaq changes the shape of just about everything (nice late day rally SXXP) amidst big news that the House of Representatives passed Trump’s signature tax bill (215-214, with one abstention, where it now moves to the Senate). The multi-trillion-dollar package aims to prevent a year-end tax increase but will raises concerns about ballooning deficits, especially after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating. Long bond yields moved high…

Some days you get a beauty of an Italian ball crossing into the top corner as time expires, the goal only just a bit more impressive than the pass… and then some days you get England football which humours, confuses, befuddles, but somehow still contains a lot of hope. Call it bias, delusion, intelligence, luck of the draw, but the English are still favoured to bring the trophy home, so keep the faith. Or just thank Austria.. Our today in the markets we had the classic stylings of technology s…

Good news is that the market is truly broadening out to Europe and to smaller cap stocks this week, albeit on lighter volumes than we’d hope. The bad news is with the concentration of ytd winners, it makes for a nervous market with brutal single stock moves when the leaders take a back seat.. The profit warning on mighty Airbus (-9.4%) was trying to singlehandedly unwind one of Europe’s premier ‘momentum’ trades of the year (SXPARO over the SXXP is now down 8.5% from its recent all-time April r…

We have a Game 7 for Lord Stanley’s Cup tonight!! the first such tradition dating back to 1892. While there have been 18 game 7’s in the finals throughout the years, it’s been since 1942 that a team has come back from dropping the first three games. I would recommend everyone to try to find the 3 minute highlights in the morning, it’s a real treat to watch this – the fastest of all team sports, play in the highest of pressure cookers.. Though not quite as exciting in markets today as Pain t…