Daily Snapshot

Our (absolutely top notch) US team like to do a “Fun Fact” each day with their morning note. It is usually eye-catching and makes you read the note (isn’t it annoying when people do that) but was conspicuous by it’s absence today as they celebrated Juneteenth Day. Now I will warn you that before you say “that’s a holiday that Joe Biden made up so he can have a lie down” it’s important to look into the origins of the day as it marks the ending of slavery in the US (June 19th, 1865). It has actua…

“It’s the journey that matters not the result” a friend said to me yesterday and post Friday’s humbling result that’s the sort of mindset I’ll have heading to Cologne tomorrow for the Scotland vs Switzerland match. It’s a bit like entering the Euromillions (£146m tonight fyi) – you’re probably not going to win, but that doesn’t stop you thinking you might in the lead up – Optimism is a beautiful thing. No signs of optimism fading within the Equity complex, yes we’re now lagging the U.S. quite c…

“I love the Daily Snapshot” said a very pleasant lady I met today for the first time. A comment that prompted my heart to soar and my pride for the (often thankless) work that Courteney and others do each day swell. “Yes,” she continued “it always means it’s very nearly the end of the day”. Hmmm. Not quite what we were hoping for but good to hear that we generate positive vibes however they manifest. Today a very good day to see the back of with what we could politely call a pause for breath af…

Today felt like just what the doctor ordered for European equities. Macron out with a reassuring statement early doors that he won’t quit if his party loses the upcoming parliamentary elections which settled a few nerves. It was followed by soft set of U.S. data pretty much across the board – Headline CPI at 3.3%, Core at 3.4% both YoY but the monthly trend improving and coming in at 0.2% ex-food and energy but all markets positive. Key is that the U.S.10yr dropped below the key 4.33% level and…

Ahead of the CPI and a Fed Decision tomorrow in the U.S. there is usually a certain natural vacuum within the Equity markets. Usually we flicker about within a few bps of the previous close as we all wait fairly patiently and wait, and wait. Today, following on from yesterday, feel like a great example of when one negative news story is out there on those kinds of days and it tends to carry a bit more weight and the Stoxx 600 ended the day -90bps. A story rumbling about Macron possibly resignin…

Four days touring around the south of England in (mostly sunshine) certainly a lovely break though I was blown away by the sheer amount of Lib Dem pickets on driveways I saw on my travels. A 250-1 shot for an overall majority in the election in a few weeks’ time meaning if you put 10 pounds on them, you lose 10 pounds. Second favourite however to be in a coalition with Labour as the shape of the next government and wherever you look right now politics is shifting and it all feels a very fluid s…

Watch what they do, not what they say.. Although widely expected, the ECB cut rates today for the first time in 5years, supporting the significant overall bond yield declines we’ve seen in June. All 3 rates (Main, Marginal, Deposit facility rate) were lowered by 25bps, and Christine Lagarde repeated her ‘no preset,’ data dependent course on them (the market is pricing in 2 more cuts for the remainder of the year). The tricky part was they also raised Inflation forecasts to 2.5% in ’24 Vs. 2.3%…

Part of my rehabilitation is to attach an electric ‘TENS’ machine to spark some life into my somewhat dormant leg muscles that haven’t had much to do in… well…quite a long time. Today was a day when it seemed the TENS machine was attached to the European Equity market and sparking some much needed life. There was an 80bp rally for the Stoxx 600 though in a little change to what we’ve seen recently it was the large heavyweights doing the lifting. The Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.6%) which had its best day…

Everything is relative in this industry and we are still fairly close to recent highs but there was little doubt that at times today felt on the painful side. Oil breaking below not one, but two supports in the last few sessions and an OPEC meeting that didn’t soothe investor’s fears set the tone for a day when Energy names in Europe came under pressure from the outset: BP a 12mo relative low, TotalEnergies right at a big level just a couple but there was nowhere to hide with the sector (SXEP)…

Not much good on TV of late so in the past couple of weeks I’ve started re-watching Suits which depicts the slightly unrealistic and glamourized life of a U.S. law firm. Everyone would rather be a Harvey Specter than a Louis Litt and we all would benefit from Mike Ross’s mind. Either way Harvey doesn’t like to lose and he famously said ‘You don’t go to trial if you’re not going to win”. Scrubbing up on Suits felt like the best prep this weekend as the day’s major news came over the weekend fro…