The View From Fifth Avenue

Deficit doom took ahold of traders today. A weak 20-year bond auction sent bonds and equities tumbling across the board with Alphabet (+2.8%) the only bright spot in an ugly tape. The Treasury’s $16 billion issue was awarded at 5.047%, whereas the average of the past six auctions is 4.613%. The starkly higher rate served as a wake-up call in an already high yield environment, and long-term debt bore the brunt of the selling pressure with the 30 year not only holding above 5% but closing at 5.08…

All inexplicable bull market rallies must come to an end, after posting 6 straight days of gains, the market retreated. Markets were indicated lower when traders took their seats in the AM and choppy throughout the day as continuing concern over tariffs and higher interest rates had many investors taking a breather. Volumes were notably light for most of the morning and with a few fed speakers due to speak, traders were hoping for any bit of clarity around tariff impacts and a clearer understan…

Stocks rebounded after an initial sell-off triggered by Moody’s decision to strip the American government of its top credit rating, with equities able to pair their earlier losses and the S&P 500 (+.09%) closing higher for the sixth straight day. This recovery came off the back of the Trump administration downplaying the downgrade and Bessent calling it a lagging indicator. Though volumes were somewhat muted on the SPX, the CCMP outperformed its 20-day while the INDU was down to little changed…

Suddenly we’re two weeks into May and staring at a screen full of green. Equities notched their fourth straight day of gains while yields slid as a buffet of economic data breathed a bit of life into the doves. A standout PPI report pushed back against recent stagflation concerns, showing the largest drop in prices paid in five years. The decline was largely driven by a pull-forward in inventory purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, offering distributors some welcome cost flexibility (for now…

U.S. markets returned to gains after initial weakness early Tuesday thanks to good news from the government’s report on inflation. The CPI showed annual inflation easing slightly to 2.3% in the 12 months through April, which marked the slowest annual rate since early 2021, and undershot expectations that it would remain at 2.4%. Equally as important to the day’s sentiment was President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh, where he was welcomed with a Saudi military escort, further signaling Middl…

With much less fanfare but equal in import, we get a newly named day today as some of the tariff veil gets lifted even further. Said name a bit unclear but that matters less than the result, which is now a temporary hold on the elevated duties between the two main combatants, the US reducing theirs from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10. The standard caveat applies, tariffs can reverse course if substantive talks don’t occur in the next ninety days but the market clearly taking this as a big…

Wall Street saw a risk-on surge Thursday morning, with stocks rising early in the session as Trump announced US-UK trade framework to reduce barriers and expand market access for American goods like beef and ethanol. It aims to fast-track US exports through UK customs and lower barriers on agricultural, chemical, energy, and industrial exports. Trump also hinted at lower tariffs if planned China talks succeed. The S&P Index rallied ~1.25% after trump spoke and maintained gains during a sideways…

Traders were in for a choppy session despite a Fed meeting and presser that could ultimately be summed up as “wait and see”. The FOMC chose to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% in a widely expected move, stressing the increased risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment. While the issued statement touched on a ‘solid’ labor market and underlying pace of economic expansion, the Fed Chair faced pointed questions on how much further weakness we need to see to warrant a cut and t…

Hear ye, hear ye…for all those Fed-heads out there, tomorrow is decision day!

Mostly a Mundane Monday as our UK counterparts were shut to celebrate Bank Day, along with the Americas celebrating Cinco De Mayo, and lastly my fellow Skywalkers coming down from the “fourth” being with them. After 9 straight days in the green (first time since 2004), US Equities took a breather today despite a midafternoon rally post optimistic trade commentary from President Trump. With volumes still well off the 20-day average, equities maintained their weakness from the premarket througho…