The View From Fifth Avenue

If you blinked, you might’ve missed the sector rotation, geopolitical flare-up, and a rapid selloff that defined today’s session. Markets snapped a 3-day winning streak amid heightened volatility as traders digested mixed signals from US-China trade talks and fresh inflation data. Despite both trade ambassadors agreeing to a framework aimed at reviving last month’s Geneva deal futures only had a brief spike, displaying investor skepticism of tangible progress. Hours later, Trump declared the de…

Remember dodgeball as a kid? The balls placed in the middle of the floor, each side having to wait for the teacher to signal when we could rush in for them. Invariably you’d start tiptoeing towards the ‘weapons’ before a full-on sprint would ensue. (Redburn has hosted a few client events with this activity and welcome any/all comers if you dare.) That’s what these markets feel like – a tempered enthusiasm mixed with some reticence as market participants wait/hope for a conclusion to talks betw…

Equities traded in a tight range today, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq eyeing former all time highs. In just two months, major indices have pulled a full U turn – from sharp sell off to a near total rebound –while volatility has quietly taken a back seat. As a matter of fact, Friday’s session marked the biggest single-day drop in the VIX over the past month. Traders kept their ears to the ground for updates from the US-China trade talks in London, and were rewarded with comments from Lutnick and Be…

We were heading into what looked like a quiet pre-NFPs session – until a disagreement broke out on social media between two of the loudest and proudest voices in US politics: Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The argument kicked off after Elon criticized Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, and quickly spiraled into a series of pointed insults. The back and forth culminated in Elon tweeting that SpaceX will begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately. Tesla took a hit in the chaos and dr…

When traders found their seats this morning futures were in the red, with most pointing to OECD reducing global economic growth estimates to 2.9% for current year vs 3.3% in 2024. The report cited weakened economic prospects globally, with lower growth and less trade impacting incomes and slowing job growth. Most of that red had been reversed by the open as investors continued to wrestle with tariff expectations, trade wars, and perhaps a growing base of traders tired of trying to calculate t…

For the week passed the S&P 500-SPX was up 2% on the week, bringing the month of May up 6% which is the strongest up month since November of last year, an atypical May if you ask me. However, the dawn of a new month is upon us and US Equities drifted early to commence. Though futures were weak from the premarket, meager manufacturing data (for a 3rd straight month) caused stocks to slide further amid renewed trade risk and continued geopolitical uncertainties. As the trading day progressed US…

The news generation out of Washington (or a derivative region) remains constant, and today’s event helped push equity indexes higher out of the gate. Today’s headline, that a US court ruled against the White House’s use of IEEPA for tariffs, was combined with the positive outcome out of Nvidia (+3.3%) to spur traders to action. But equities hit their peaks just after the open and spent the rest of the day trading relatively sideways. The White House will most likely appeal the ruling to the Sup…

It feels a little like summer has arrived early this year and sadly, I’m not referring to the weather (which, btw, has been putrid in NYC). There’s a sense of complacency in the marketplace and a notable lack of action, as well as ambivalence around tariffs that portend the potential for threats to come. This is especially a risk as Trump was asked about the “TACO Trade” today (‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ to the uninitiated) and he was quite offended, calling the question “nasty.” That was the…

Two steps forward and one step back. Or is it one step forward and two steps back…? Either way, add it all together and you get nowhere, which is pretty much where the US indices are year to date thanks to the constant shifting of tariff goal posts. The latest example had markets going better again this morning, the deadline of 50% tariffs on all things EU moving from June 1st to July 9th. If you’d read this article from the FT, you might’ve approached this latest threat a bit differently. Stil…

Yields, Yields and more yields. US Treasury yields remain in focus following the passing of the Trump tax bill late last night by the House. Concerns remain around the growing US deficit and increasing interest payments. The bill now heads to the Senate where it will certainly meet scrutiny with some already saying spending cuts are not significant enough which may put July 4th “deadline” in jeopardy. Following the news the US30YR Treasury yield rose to the highs of 5.15%, a level not seen si…