The View From Fifth Avenue

US indexes suffered at the hands of another strong ISM Services print. Equities fell, S&P 500 closed below the 50d (4475), and US Treasury rates rose after August services data came in higher across the board. The ISM Services Index (act. 54.5, est. 52.5) posted the highest level in six months, while ISM Services Employment (54.7) is the highest since November 2021. In addition, services prices paid increased for the second month in a row. These increases do not bode well for future inflation d…

US equities trudged to the starting line and fell into the finish line, clearly still recovering from the long Labor Day weekend. The NASDAQ attempted recovery midday, but ultimately succumbed to losses by the close. It was the Russell 2000 that saw the largest losses of the day, down 1.9%, led lower by Trinseo (-20.0%) and Aaron’s Co. (-12.7%), which both fell (the former to 52-week lows) on headlines the stocks will be leaving the S&P SmallCap600 index. Economic data was sparse and not impact…

This week was full of economic data and today was no different. Employment data released this morning seems to confirm a pullback in the labor market after speculation began earlier this week with soft JOLTS and Jobless claims data. The unemployed rate rose to 3.8% (est. 3.5%), the highest since February ’22. While nonfarm payrolls reported a gain of +187k, outpacing estimates of +170k. There is concern around revisions for June and July. July had originally reported a gain +187k but was revise…

Judging by trading volumes today, the long Labor Day weekend has not yet begun for many US investors. The elevated participation (S&P volumes +14% vs. the 20day average) suggested that even the most aggressive holiday seekers wouldn’t miss the last day of the month and an MSCI rebalance. Unfortunately, the S&P couldn’t eke out a 5th day of gains, suffering into the afternoon and enduring a decent selloff into the close. The Nasdaq outperformed +11bps, despite the same closing selloff. There was…

Just Friday, the S&P was on track to not post consecutive daily gains for the first time since 2002. But, while that describes the current above the surface calm of the markets, investors can sigh a breadth of relief as the index closed today with a third day of gains, and back above its 50-day moving average (4461). The Fed was unmoved in its guidance last week and that pushed some expectations for a November hike, but today’s JOLTS datapoint usurped that view as openings fell to their lowest…

Today was one of those days where you wonder…why did I let me colleague beat me to the internal calendar and take this day/week off? The UK had the right idea with the August bank holiday, although markets would be far better served if we could just align these market closures, no? (America with their own NEXT Monday). China did their best to add a jolt of energy to the proceedings with their latest piecemeal stimulative offering and it worked for a brief while. But enthusiasm for the move fade…

It’s been a week! Markets ended their 3-week losing streak, which in itself isn’t much of a surprise, it’s hard to keep a good market down. What was surprising however was the broad gains came without much assistance from the two ‘events’ of the week. Through no fault of its own, Nvidia couldn’t hold on to its initial gains and finished well off today. The 2nd big attraction was of course Fed Chairman Powell and his address at Jackson Hole this morning. There have been differing viewpoints on t…

Equities rallied as yields retreated today in a continued pattern of light summer volume trading. Any and all eyes actually left at the screens after the bell today were focused on Nvidia (+3.2%) earnings with extra lofty expectations after the stock has rallied over 220% YTD as the posterchild for AI. The combination of lower yields and anticipation into the print had equities regaining some ground lost in the past few weeks. Today’s breadth proved decently strong with the S&P seeing a 78%…