The View From Fifth Avenue

Well, I think we all knew where today was going. Starting the day, CME data had the likely hood of a pause at 99% and what did we get? A pause. The real focus for traders today was the new Fed dot plot which surprised most with the median rate forecasted to be 5.125% (est. 4.875%) for 2024. The US2Y rose to 5.16% after the release, a level not seen since 2006. When it comes to the possibility of another hike this year, Fed officials remained mixed. Twelve officials see one more rate hike this y…

Another relatively muted day for equities today as US markets fell mostly lower despite a (failed) attempt to fully recover ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Energy has captured the spotlight as the headwind of the moment, and though ultimately reversing to flattish on the day, the damage was done when Brent crude breached $95 early this am and spooked sentiment sufficiently. Yields rose soundly across the curve as concerns of higher for longer echoed far and wide. The 10-year yield closed…

US equities travelled quite a bit today but went nowhere, as the SPX sat near the low-end of its multi-week range, but still managed to close just slightly higher on the day. Investors await a multitude of central bank meetings this week, including The Fed’s next policy decision on Wednesday, but also central bank decisions from China, Japan, Norway, the UK, and a few others as the week progresses. Wall Street is nearly unanimously expecting the FOMC to hold the federal-funds rate steady at 5.2…

A broad-based weak day in equity markets, with notable declines in technology names. All the key indices were lower with the NASDAQ down the most reflecting technology and all the S&P sectors declining. Every one of the “magnificent seven” in the red today. It was triple witching so that played a part. Semis were especially weak after a news report that Taiwan Semi (-2.3%) had asked suppliers to delay some incoming shipments. The Philly Semiconductor index gave back 3.0% with KLA Corp (-5.3%) a…

Equities saw gains on Thursday, driven by Arm Holdings Plc’s debut excitement and a better-than-expected print on retail sales. Investors decided to take the data positively even though this might continue to push the narrative of higher for longer rates. Investors are still expecting the Fed to pause this month. All indices were positive, although unlike recent sessions, the sector mix pointed to a more cautious stance. Rotation continued in favor of Energy, which saw strong support from crud…

Major indices were able to finish higher into the close, after the sessions’ biggest catalyst (the CPI) did little to shift the larger narrative. The CPI print saw an (expected) uptick on the headline number, driven by rising energy prices as well as shelter, while the core number fell to bang inline vs cons on a YoY basis. Commentators knew higher energy costs would be a factor, so little surprise there. Either way, bulls continue to highlight progress on core and continue to expect shelter/ho…

Tech pulled markets lower in Tuesday trading as outperformance in Energy did little to offset the broader result. The Nasdaq underperformed its index peers and again traded places with its 50-day MA to the losing position today.. The main offenders on the drop today were Oracle falling (-13.5%) as the worst performing name in the S&P following discouraging release yesterday and Apple (-3.1%) as the main event of the day did little to spur excitement as the new release of the iPhone, smartwatch…

With the big three indexes nursing weekly losses, markets took a positive view to today’s session and finished with gains. The economic calendar was quiet, giving investors a moment to reflect on the coming data. Inflation continues to be the theme, especially in regard to the Fed, and this week will provide traders one last glance as the calendar heads towards another FOMC. While next week is not expected to yield another hike, peak rates continue to push further in 2024 (higher for longer), a…

This week’s losing streak has officially been broken– if only on a mere technicality– as we narrowly eked out modest gains on the major US indices to close out the shortened holiday week here in the States. Overall, we still head into the weekend having fallen below the 50-day MA’s and yet unable to recover above. Nasdaq was the last to break that level earlier this week while the Russell remains the laggard of them all having now broken below its 100-day MA and the sole downer today. It w…

September is only seven days old, and it already has been a rough month for equities as the major indexes all finished in the red once again. While the S&P and Russell both started the month positively, Nasdaq is perfect in its negativity as traders weigh potential read throughs for the biggest stock in the world. China’s plan to ban government officials from using an iPhone for work was reportedly extended to SOEs, and Apple (-2.9%) added to yesterday’s losses, falling through its 100-day movi…