The View From Fifth Avenue

According to some statisticians, there is a 100% chance November will be an up month after the three past down months. And if this week is any indication, investors can expect that prognostication to prove accurate into year end. The SPX gained +1% today to start November, which makes +2.9% this week thus far, despite some rough earnings and mixed data. Investors were focused mostly on The Fed, which was a non-event, as JP duly delivered an unchanged target Funds rate. It was noted by analysts…

It’s scary, isn’t it? October is now complete and both equity indexes and Treasuries have posted more losses. While it is the third consecutive month for the broader indexes, it is the sixth for the 10-year yield, and investors are hoping that November will change those directions. As the 10-year hovers just below 5% (4.91% last), traders brace for another FOMC meeting and its potential to move sentiment. There is currently no expectation for any rate movement tomorrow, but economic data contin…

After a beautiful weekend in NYC that didn’t align with the calendar, Mother Nature it seems has recognized her mistake and quickly dropped the temperature back to ‘normal’ this week. Turning the clocks back next weekend will add to the autumnal feel as we depart work into the darkness. Things have been dark of late for equities, but today’s session felt like we turned back the clock, impressive gains seen throughout on volumes that were respectable at least. With the S&P having lost ground 8 o…

As the curtain closed on a week chock full of underwhelming earnings and lowered guidance, indices continued their descent with the S&P posting an 82% down day today. An in-line PCE report offered early encouragement with core PCE lower MoM though robust consumer spending suggests no significant slowdown in GDP growth, reinforcing the prospect of sticky inflation (3-4%) through next year and sending equities further into the red. 146 S&P 500 companies reported this week, and today more than two…

When futures are indicated lower and the tape wobbly throughout the trading session, it makes navigating through earnings trickier than normal, the margin for error is so fine, there is no room for mishap on any metric. A slide in big tech sent the stock market to its lowest since May after another round of disappointing earnings. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, edging closer to a “correction” — with the index down almost 10% from its July peak, while the Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 2%. With that said, ra…

The problem with being magnificent is that it can become difficult to live up to those standards, and Alphabet found that out today. Lighter than expected cloud growth was enough to drop the stock from its lofty altitude, as it nursed its biggest loss (-9.6%) since the Covid days of March 2020. Microsoft (+3.1%) did beat in cloud, but it was not enough to provide enough of a lift for the broader markets. Investors are in the thick of earnings currently, and according to Bloomberg, Q3 earnings g…

Yields continued to be a focus for traders throughout today’s session as they once again remained volatile. Shorter term US treasury rates jumped in the morning after S&P Global PMI data beat across the board, holding in expansion territory. All 3 components (Manufacturing, Services and Composite) increased when compared to September’s data, helping to reassure investors that the US economy is still growing. Despite a brief rise in rates, equity performance was strong after five consecutive day…

US Equities posted a mixed result on the day. The bad news first… For the first time in 2023, the S&P closed in the red for its fifth consecutive session, continuing its move south after crossing the 200-DMA Friday. Secondly, the Dow was unable to hold on to the 33k level and finished further into the red, only to be outdone by the very-unloved-at-the-moment Russell 2k. And last but certainly not least, the final (sour) cherry on top today came in the early hours when the 10yr yield breached t…

Investors sifted through a sea of red today as equities tumbled for the 4th day in a row, with the S&P (-1.2%) closing below its 200d mvag for the first time since March. The bearish tone taking hold this week has no shortage of culprits… geopolitical tensions, Treasury yields, interest rate concerns… the list goes on. Indices were measured in their march downward this week, but surprised in that losses were felt broadly within major indices (Wednesday notched a >80% down day). The canary in th…

If investors have become numbed to the persistent Fed speaker chatter of the higher for longer message, they did not show it today. Chairman Powell always deserves attention, and the market moves when he spoke today showed via the volatility spikes. After he was done speaking, not much really has changed… “inflation path to be bumpy, yields have tightened financial conditions, strong economy may merit hiking, proceeding carefully” are just some of his comments. The end result is that November i…