The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 16 April 2025

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Even as tariff announcements from Washington have quieted, the ramifications continue to move through the markets. China remains a US focus, and this has forced Nvidia to warn they would be taking a $5.5b charge in Q1 because of US licensing restrictions on their China specific H20 chip. The semi heavyweight fell 6% pre-market and weighed on broader sentiment and the S&P 500 opened down 1%, and Nasdaq down 1.9%. Investors finally received some economic data starting with Chinese GDP/ Retail Sal…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 10 April 2025

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Markets started the day firmly in the red after a record setting reversal day following Trump’s decision to pause tariffs with cooperating countries for 90 days, while increasing the pressure on China by increasing the levy to 125%. Halfway through the day the market rallied off the lows but struggled to gain any real traction as the S&P 500 closed below the 5300 level. US inflation cooled broadly in March, with the consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and energy costs increasing 0.1% fro…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 9 April 2025

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Ladies and gentlemen hold on to your hats. Trump set the table early with a 10am tweet on Truth Social that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” but it was his early afternoon declaration of a 90 day PAUSE and reciprocal tariffs immediately lowered to 10% that sent equities flying. Trump also opted to raise tariffs on China to 125%, further escalating a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China aside, what has previously been a hard line of 25% levies across the board is now a line…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 3 April 2025

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As soon as the Rose Garden ceremony ended last night, investors knew they had a tough day in front of them. “Liberation Day” was announced, along with tariffs, and futures immediately dropped. That weakness continued into today’s session and did not end until the closing bell rung. As traders sit back, take a breath, and review the damage, there is little to be happy about. There were a couple sectors in the green, Staples (XLP +58bps) and Telcos (1.7%), but the downside underperformance was de…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 2 April 2025

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Hear ye! Hear ye! The United States has finally been liberated…maybe? This day of tariffs has been marked with a red X on everyone’s calendar long before March 19th when President Trump officially dubbed it “Liberation Day”, but that doesn’t mean we’re anymore prepared then the first day it was announced. US stocks experienced continued volatility as traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the 4pm announcement which is expected to significantly impact global trade. Tariff ranging from 10- 20%…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 1 April 2025

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It’s the eve of liberation day or better known across the world as April Fool’s Day, with investors patiently waiting for the uncertainty around tariffs to end. But as the late great Tom Petty once said, “the waiting is the hardest part” and that comes to an end tomorrow at 3pm in the rose garden of the White House. Investors will hopefully receive concrete trade policy tomorrow which could help alleviate the uncertainty in the market, but will it be enough to undo that damage that has been don…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 31 March 2025

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I think it’s safe to say there was a collective sigh felt at the close today as investors closed the doors on Q1. Volatility and uncertainty reigned supreme throughout the quarter and today was no exception. Traders awoke to futures deep in the red after Trump’s comments that he plans to start reciprocal tariffs with all countries, which not only contradicted last week’s rumors that tariffs would be more targeted but also set a grim table for Wednesday’s ‘liberation day’. However, indices fough…