The View From Fifth Avenue

December is off to a rocking start and its clear there’s one thing on every investor’s Christmas list… cuts! Powell took the podium not once but twice today in an attempt to reign in the market’s eager reception of dovish FedSpeak and cooler inflation data this week, but as usual, his rhetoric went in the ear and out the other. Indices marched North as the S&P eyed its July high of 4607, though the Russell stole the show after crossing its 200d mva (+2.96%). Financials continued their move high…

As of the closing bell today, we have turned the page on yet another month, leaving only one more to go in 2023. November was one to remember as it tried to take a page out of the TSwift handbook and officially secured its place in the Top 20 (#17 to be exact) months of gains recorded in the past 50 years. Or, more sensationally, as reported by Bloomberg— in the entirety of the past century, the month of November has only seen gains of greater than 8% less than 10 total times…!

Markets are not giving up the Move-ember as the month is quickly coming to an end. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are sitting on their best monthly performances since July 2022, with only one day left to change that. Investors have attached themselves to the cuts are coming thesis since the perceived dovish tilt at the last FOMC meeting, and now construe every Fed speaker comment that the first rate cut will occur next spring. CME data now projects May 2024 as the pivot point, and that Fed Funds w…

Equities which are currently trading near “overbought” levels, are still heading towards one of its biggest November gains on record, ever…”oh seasonality”. Comments from the Fed’s Waller remained the focus of the day, while nothing he particularly mentioned was groundbreaking, he’s “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%.” The 7-year Treasury action was a touch on the weaker side, and this took some of the steam out of s…

After Wednesday’s edition, we promised we wouldn’t make any more Thanksgiving analogies or references. That’s in the past. We’re looking forward and the future is bright; namely because of all the Christmas lights that have sprung up over the weekend. The market was a bit dim by comparison however, volumes and enthusiasm failing to match the excitement normally found this time of year. There is time of course and the data we’ll see this week along with some notable earnings from the tech set (C…

Sure, writing today’s recap the day before a celebrated American holiday / long weekend may seem like a chore. But think of the buffet of analogies at my disposal; in fact, a keen eye will spot I’ve already started doing just that. It’s been a veritable feeding frenzy for equities the last three weeks plus now, the US benchmark registering gains all but 3 times since the 27th of October. The feast started anew this morning as investors continued to have appetite, but labor data and consumer co…

US equities finished just in the red today, seemingly losing steam on lower volumes ahead of Thursday’s holiday as traders awaited the highly anticipated Nvidia report. Lofty expectations countered an otherwise strong beat from the chip marker as shares fell after hours. It was an impressively level performance today on almost all metrics: Treasury yields wobbled higher on the longer end, the dollar rebounded off lows, oil flip-flopped into positive territory, and gold rose. News of hostage neg…

US equity markets were lured higher today as we prepare for a shortened week served up via the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday which will be followed by a tryptophan-induced half day on Friday. With a light macro lineup and average volumes, the market played follow-the-leader with Tech at the helm. The Nasdaq hit a new 22-mo high and both the ‘Magic 7’ and NYFANG+ hit new all-time highs as all constituents were in the plus on the day. Market breadth improved as the tech rally pulled the bro…

The November moves have continued for another week, this time as investors rejoice the declining CPI data. Whether Powell and the Fed can pull off a Captain Sully remains a topic of debate, however investors have voiced their opinion by pushing Fed Fund Future expectations 100bps lower by the end of 2024. According to the daily regimen of Fed speakers, they are still not ready to claim inflation victory (Daly and Collins), although Barr thought they were “at or near interest rate peak”. Equites…

The tailwinds that have been propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 7.5% and 9.8% respectively for the month seem to have disappeared. Rising concerns over the strength of the consumer and economy have become headwinds for equities. US Treasury rates fell after Jobless claims and Continuing claims were higher than estimates, with continuing claims rising every week since the beginning of September. Unlike previous sessions this month, the falling rates were not enough to push equities higher after…