**As per holiday tradition, the View will be going on hiatus for the last two weeks of the year. Most importantly, we genuinely want to thank you for your continued support this year and years past. Wishing you all a happy holidays and healthy/safe New Year.**
Call it another “win” for US equity markets today as the gains continued on for day 1-2-3-4-5-Six! of consecutive advances on the S&P. I should add that we did get a rather abrupt about-face midday where we saw indices reverse course and hit the red momentarily before recovering again on their merry way, assumingly higher. Little was unearthed when investigating the sudden shift, pause, or stall- whichever you prefer- aside from some mention of rotation and positioning. Ultimately, the Fed “…
Copy and Paste! The December FOMC statement was nearly identical to November’s and too be expected with key economic data points roughly staying the same over the past two months as the committee held rates at the current levels. BUT the statement was cast aside like socks as a gift on Christmas morning for a brighter and shinier 2024 dot plot. In a surprise move away from the “higher for longer” theme, FOMC participants now see the medium Fed Funds rate for 2024 at 4.6% compared to 5.1% previo…
Investors are data dependent like their Fed counterparts and today’s CPI print offered nothing dastardly. As the first group maintains the outlook of cuts are coming, the latter is pushing back in their resolve to keep rates higher. Tomorrow’s FOMC will provide an update on those themes. Back to the CPI. The data was relatively inline as the core m/m rose 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%, while the y/y was 3.1% (inline). The prints were not enough to shake the recent market momentum and equities r…
A rather quiet day as stocks started out mixed, ultimately extending gains for today’s session showing more evidence of breadth improvement within US equities. Another BIG day of rotation within tech was made apparent, in particular strong outperformance of ‘hardware’ semiconductors vs ‘software’ . As previously stated by my well hearalded colleague Ben Denney, “still plenty of room to rotate further back within the past 2yrs range following the huge ‘software’ outperformance from the August ‘2…
The robust nature of the recent rally was evident Friday even in the face of some confronting macro this morning.
US markets shook the frost off their bones today, ignored the losses suffered over the past few days and pushed higher with the Nasdaq outperforming its peers with help from everybody’s favorite topic AI. Two companies commanded the headlines today with Alphabet (+5.3%) receiving a warm response from the street after its release of the AI model “Gemini” and Advanced Micro Devices (+9.8%) announcing its anticipated MI300 chip line up along with the CEO saying the AI chip industry could climb to…
The “too far, too fast” narrative continued to permeate air waves today as broad-based selling overtook equity markets into the close. The selling started early on and continued, after investors received more dovish employment data in the form of softer ADP, higher productivity, and lower unit labor costs. Investors weighed both sides —–the negative implications for EPS with softening growth and cooler inflation, vs. the bullish possibility of lower yields, broadening breadth and corporate r…
It’s that time of year again. December is here before we knew it and the calendar is filling up to the point a dry January seems like a reasonable idea. But much like wanting to train for the NYC marathon after watching from the sidelines, that’s usually a passing fancy. The number of events into year-end can leave one’s head spinning though, but that’s not the only thing that’s seeing a bit of rotation. The peak-yield narrative has seen greenshoots sprout from other areas of the equity univers…
After a five -week rally and a 91% up day on Friday where breadth is evidently improving, equities took a breather today. It brings into question “can the rally in small cap stocks persist”? Major indices seemed gassed during today’s trading session with the Nasdaq 100 dropping 1%, though equities rallied into the close major indices closed in the red. Rotation into risk-on looks prevalent however is this a hastily move into oversold/cheap secondary stocks with a reversion back to quality after…