The View From Fifth Avenue

The grains of sand in the hourglass are running thin, but it looks like they may have to last an extra 42 days now before we reach the first of key interest rate cuts from the Fed… Market participants may be adjusting their clocks accordingly after Powell’s presser today seemed to have moved the goal post back from March 20 to May 1. Initially, price action in US markets was cautious, but mostly muted leading up to the FOMC event today as Tech and the inability to outshine lofty expectation…

Yesterday’s quarterly Treasury borrowing report was not enough to keep the ALL-TIME HIGH streak going for main US indexes. US stocks floundered in the face of big tech earnings with semiconductor companies taking the brunt of the sell off. Concerns over Advanced Micro Devices (-4.1%) going into this afternoon’s earnings rippled through the sector as traders questioned the high valuations. Focus will be on AMD’s revenue forecasts for 2024 especially after Intel Corp (-2.1%) and Texas Instruments…

As quoted in Reuters “next week is “the largest ‘event-risk’ week ahead in recent memory,” Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott”. Well…Charlie spot on, according to Bloomberg, this week is being coined the “busiest this season” from macro data read throughs to single stock earnings that can sway markets in either direction. With that said, shall the MELT UP continue?The SPX fluctuated near ATH’s during majority of Monday’s trading session however markets rallied even further as the US Treasury…

Another point for Team Goldilocks in today’s PCE print with the headline number holding steady and a modest dip in core. Viewed in conjunction with yesterday’s robust GDP growth, a week of new highs for indices, and a curiously quiet macro backdrop, the grind higher was ground to a halt. Equities took a bit of a breather (though still just off best levels) in largely range bound trading, while yields rose across the curve. Oil caught a bid into the close with the energy sector up 5% on the week…

“New highs are bullish” is the familiar refrain, and the S&P 500 has been whistling that tune every day since it finally broke (and closed) through the 4818 level last Friday. Investors have a positive outlook currently on the economy, and of the Fed’s intent, and today’s data supported the soft landing/ no landing outcome they are looking for. GDP today (Q4 advanced) was 3.3%, higher than the 2% expected. Personal Consumption of 2.8% also was a beat, and the quarterly PCE index component remai…

Rates caused some concern today after the January S&P Global preliminary PMI surprised traders to the upside across the board. Treasury rates immediately climbed higher as traders paired bets on a March rate cut even further. CME data now has the chance of a March rate cut at 40%, just one week ago it was 53%. Too make matters worse, the $61 billion 5-year Treasury note auction left a lot to be desired after poor demand. A weak bid-to-cover (2.31) and indirect bid (60.9%) pushed Treasury rates…

It seems like it’s all a waiting game at this point. For all the roller coaster fans in the crowd—what’s better than that slow, anticipatory accent to the top of the first hill? The sound of each tick of the track taking you higher and higher, the views getting better and better, the breeze stronger… New highs have usurped new highs so far this week and still… higher we climb. Earnings may have swiftly stolen the spotlight as ~15% of the S&P is slated to report this week with a like amoun…

It does seem foolish to lay so much weight on a month’s performance, but history suggests January can go a long way towards determining the performance for a full year, at least from an index perspective. After a rocky start, equities have righted the ship and today methodically added to the year’s gains. There wasn’t much of note over the weekend and that was reflected in the day’s “action.” As we mentioned earlier today, new highs are bullish and that has become the default setting of late…

Indices moved from bottom left to top right today as investors found a foot hold in the comfortable, quality, yet arguably overcrowded fan favorite names that make up the M7. The S&P and Nasdaq made all-time closing highs with Tech and Semis paving the path of least resistance higher, reinforced by signs of strong breadth. The interesting move in combination with this demonstrated strength is the rebound in yields seen over the past week – which we see as more of a counter trend rebound amid a…

Stocks rebounded today after two weaker previous sessions and the Nasdaq took the lead early. The CCMP’s performance was not altogether surprising though— the IYW (iShares Tech ETF) made a new all-time relative high yesterday and was strong again today (+2%), reconfirming tech’s long-term outperformance uptrend. The US30yr was back above the 50d moving average for the first time in 2months with the next short-term resistance level around the 4.47% area, before hitting 4.60%. Elsewhere, Brent…