The View From Fifth Avenue

And just like that, we’re on the other side of 2024. The 2nd half of the year began today and it’s sure to bring some fireworks. And sooner than later! We’re referring to the July 4th holiday of course (our English colleagues might suggest they started yesterday w/ that absurd bicycle kick/header finish!! But stop wasting your beer would ya?) but with that comes a 1.5 day midweek break, interrupting any early flow the market was hoping to have for H2. As July 1st comes on a Monday, it feels li…

We started the day on a rather optimistic foot given last night’s discouraging Presidential debate. Indices opened in the green and momentarily climbed on some disinflationary data, but ultimately a hangover from last night’s debate dragged indices lower into the close. Treasuries rallied initially as well, but reversed course after the University of Michigan survey evidenced a stronger than expected consumer. PCE was inline with expectations for May at 2.6% headline and 2.6% for core, decelera…

A mixed bag of data to start the day led to a rather uneventful session. To no surprise, initial jobless and continuing claims remain at the same levels, a slight increase in Core PCE for the Q1 was expected, and personal consumption was lower than expected but not enough to stir up some worrying on the street. Concern does remain around US GDP after positing 1.4% growth for Q1 as the economy flashes signs of a slowdown due to the extended high interest rate environment. A soft landing remains…

With macro developments firmly in the stable bucket, single stocks were the main attraction of today’s session. New Home Sales fell short in the morning half, but last month saw upward revisions which took the sting out of the surprise lower. Thus, center stage featured earnings results as well as eye roll please…megacap tech. Amazon (+4%) hit a record high above $2 trillion, becoming the 5th US company to surpass that level and Apple (+2%) benefitted from a broker upgrade, while Nvidia (+0.25%…

Tech up, market up. Simply put… as NVDA recovered some of its recent days’ losses, Big Tech resumed it lead position and helped to pull the broader market higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led gains followed by the S&P while the DOW and Russell both lagged in the red. Eyes on a “broadening out” remain in focus but will have to wait for another day in the sun as the S&P Equal Weight index also lagged in the red today. Elsewhere, some focus on Treasury bond auctions this week, starting with stron…

Fun Fact: It’s been 2 full years since Nvidia last had three straight 3%+ declines – June 9th, 10th, and 13th of 2022).

So maybe this is a hot take (although everything qualifies as such this week as it’s been sweltering here in NYC all week. The positive, you sweat so much during your day to day you can skip the gym?) As I was saying, while Friday or Monday holidays provide a nice long weekend, the midweek reprieve might be my preferred choice. That’s sure to spark some debate; this market is doing the same. Is the consumer softening or just being a bit more discerning? Is the economy stalling to recession or e…

It’s a bit jarring having a national holiday fall on a Wednesday. A colleague offered an innocent and well-timed ‘Happy Monday’ on our morning meeting today and I couldn’t help but think twice – for a moment I was lost in an abrupt and unfamiliar is-it-Monday-or-Friday-oh-wait-it’s Thursday train of thought. Today’s trading evidenced a very different but equally abrupt and unfamiliar move as semis lagged on the day. Perhaps a bit of mean reversion is healthy but given the now glaring degree of…

With the US markets closed tomorrow for Juneteenth, traders kept a cautious approach into the day off. Some themes were maintained however as Semis climbed to another all-time high with a Nvidia bull (+3.5%) raising his price target to $200 (if attained, would value the company at $5 trillion). But the stock market has more than seven stocks (believe it or not) and that keeps investors mindful of economic data. As the Fed decides when/ if to cut and the Street looking for one to two in 2024, ea…

Stocks came out of the gates hot this morning after a cooler May CPI and another bullish tech data point— this time from Oracle (ORCL +13.3%), who spoke to AI-fueled cloud growth in their earnings beat. But a slight tap on the brakes was later applied to major indices when Powell and The Fed sent mixed messages that were net/net a nothing done. Slightly more dovish language was balanced by hawkish forecast changes. They did not cut rates (as expected), but odds moved in favor of one 25bp cut…