The View From Fifth Avenue

The US rebound continued today and after today’s close, the S&P 500 is back above where it ended July. The end of July coincided with a recession scare via the jobs data, which also pushed trading positions to be unwound in dramatic fashion, but with the VIX back to 15.15, volatility has subsided. This week has been important in calming those hard landing fears, first with the PPI and CPI, and then with today’s Retail Sales which rose 1% versus the expected 0.4%. The data shows the consumer rem…

To Cut or not to cut? 25bps or 50bps? 100bps by Year-End? So many questions and unknowns remain, as we are in limbo, technically speaking we aren’t in a recession albeit the SAHM-Recession rule was triggered with NFP week before last, the conundrum of data is head-scratching to say the least. Nonetheless inflation is cooling, first time CPI dips below 3% since March of 2021 to 2.9%, however essentials such as Car Insurance, Transportation, Hospital Services and Rent remain elevated. As far as…

After consecutive trading days with dismal volume, main US indexes were boosted higher thanks to a welcomed soft PPI print this morning. We were confident that the economic data this week would be underneath a microscope with data prints determining the outcome of the market for the day. Today confirms that theory as core PPI YoY came at 2.4% (est. 2.6%) for July, sending US treasury rates lower and Indexes higher. We shouldn’t get out over our skis just yet as tomorrow morning brings, more imp…

We needed a breather after last week and this most August-ian of Mondays provided exactly that. A trickling effort from the markets to start the week, but this level of calm is unlikely to persist throughout the week; key economic data is set to come. Indices recorded a 4th straight week of losses upon Friday’s conclusion; a 5th would be the first since in over 2 years. And while on its surface the S&P gave back little last week, damage had surely been done. Broadly speaking, it wasn’t a great…

What a week it’s been, if you told traders on Monday that the S&P 500 would finish the week nearly flat a majority would have been very skeptical. But after a shaky start to the week, main US indexes shook off the major worries from last Friday’s employment data and the unwinding of the carry trade as cooler heads prevailed over the one-off data. To put the overaction into perspective the VIX reached levels above 60, levels not seen since the start of the Pandemic and before that the Global Fin…

‘honestly, it’s been one of the craziest/busiest summers of my entire career.’ -RP (only the client will know, assuming they read this)

The battle between macro and micro lived on today as investors digested a slew of underwhelming earnings against a backdrop of volatility implosion, carry trade pain, an election, and Middle East tensions. The one saving macro grace was communication from the BoJ reassuring investors there would be no further tightening. But the calm did not last. Investors saw the writing on the wall of a cooling economy via the earnings disappointments and CEO commentary. Further, US treasuries slipped past t…

Turn Around Tuesday kept its name as indexes moved higher after yesterday’s carnage. But only a 1% gain for the main indexes (after a 3% drop Monday) may keep traders questioning the actual strength of today’s move. Funds did take advantage of Monday’s weakness though as Goldman’s desk saw its highest one-day net buying in 5 months (per Bloomberg). Japan showed similar traits as the Nikkei rallied 10% overnight, setting up a positive start for the US. There was a lack of Fed speakers (none) and…

A prevalent tone of ‘proceed with caution’ was evident in today’s session. The weakness was widespread as every sector closed deep in the red with no shortage of culprits. The main focus was on the yen strengthening versus the dollar (as much as 3%), an eye watering move that sent the Nikkei plunging 12.4% overnight. The weakness bled into the US session early as major indices opened on their lows and crowded trades unraveled mercilessly. Further, the move lower in equities sparked a flight to…

Freaky Friday and investors are clearly spooked. NFPs this morning didn’t just miss, they missed by a mile and a revision lower for the prior month isn’t helping matters. The labor market has been top of mind recently amid continued signs of cooling, or what Powell chose to refer to as ‘normalization’ on Wednesday, and this morning’s weak employment data really seems to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Drilling down to the numbers, headline NFP came in at 114k versus 175k expected whic…