The View From Fifth Avenue

Shrugging Nvidia earnings or at least trying to as the SPX finished unched on the day after a roaring morning! In fairness “it’s tough being the A+ student” however this does feel a bit knit picky during the interim. In any event, main averages soared post open and never quite looked back as futures extended gains for majority of the trading session minus a minor selloff in the last hour of trading. Seems like the shrugging intensified as we received mixed economic data that showed US GDP being…

Today’s session didn’t seem to matter because every single investor was solely focused on the countdown to “go-time” for the most anticipated (and arguably most important) set of numbers for the year – Nvidia (NVDA -2.1%). Given the size of the implied move (c$300bn mkt cap swing in either direction), Nvidia’s performance has a significant impact on directional moves for the whole equity complex (HINT: guidance wasn’t quite up to par and the stock traded down out of the gates, settling down 5%)…

For the past few weeks investors have channeled all their focus into economic data and policy catalysts. While all those tidbits are still important, the only thing that really matters this week is the one stock that can move the S&P +/- 1% in a week —Nvidia (NVDA +1.5%), whose earnings are coming to a theatre near you tomorrow. But not just Nvidia. There are several other tech names reporting tomorrow and Thursday that will have clear and present impact on sentiment —Salesforce, CrowdStrik…

Today had all the feels of a Monday as we all prepare for the unofficial close of summer next Monday (Labor Day). Volumes remain muted across the board with the S&P 500 volumes down 25% vs 20d mavg. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower on what looks like some profit taking heading into Nvidia earnings. This does not seem surprising, especially given that the S&P was up nearly 2% on the month and within 1% of the all-time highs (next resistance level 5667). Rates remained relatively steady t…

The expectation going into today’s Jackson Hole Symposium was as high as the Tetons. With 100bps of cuts being priced by the markets (over the 3 remaining meetings), Powell did not disappoint as he started his press conference with “The time has come for policy to adjust”. An immediate spike in equites and treasuries (and a drop in the Dollar) ensued, as the markets cheered the expected result. While the question of how much in September remains, the CME data shows a 34% chance of a 50bps cut (…

We’re on track for the lowest volume week YTD, and it sure felt that way today. Snoozeville central as S&P volumes were down 22% compared to the 20-day moving average and net neutral economic data provided little fanfare. The Flash PMIs were mixed and cancelled each other out (solid services vs. weaker manufacturing), while weekly claims and existing home sales were bang inline. The S&P 500 and CCMP both lost some of their shine– down 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while other asset classes foun…

The market tried, it tried hard to drum up some volume today but in the end the effort was futile. Despite some relevant earnings this morning, BLS nonfarm payroll revision and July Fed meeting minutes, volumes remain MUTED (to say the least). The S&P 500 rose to close slightly positive on the day on some of the lowest volumes of the year (-31% vs 20d avg) but it is now up for 9 of the past 10 sessions and is firmly above the 50d mavg with its sights set on the ATH of 5667. Also, worth a quick…

As we were on the precipice of breaking a 20-year-old streak, the market had a different plan as we approached the 5600 level. What streak you ask? The SPX has not been up nine consecutive days since November of 2004! Just in case you were wondering the longest consecutive “up” streak was for fourteen days back in April…… of 1971! To think the VIX was at the 60 level two weeks ago to where we are today, just shy of the 16 level is maniacal. Markets have made a habit of getting overextended one…

So, you want to write ‘The View’ (said nobody ever) on a late August Monday as two-week vacations kicking off in earnest and the highlight of the week coming at the very end straight from the mountains of Wyoming. I am planning an upcoming holiday myself so maintaining focus will be of the utmost importance. The focus lately has been on buying stocks, as a very wobbly market has suddenly gotten sturdy, the S&P logging its 8th consecutive up day with breadth strength as well. The lighter volumes…

We’re now halfway through an August that has been anything but sleepy. Though if the OOO bounce backs are any indication, particularly in conjunction with the VIX closing back below 15, we’re certainly on calmer footing heading into the back half of the month. ‘Reassuring’ is the word I continue to use to describe this week’s economic data (inline CPI and PPI, robust retail sales), but truthfully it feels rather apt considering two weeks ago we were hearing calls for an emergency 50 bps rate cu…