The View From Fifth Avenue

We’re halfway through September and despite the overwhelming number of seasonality warnings that started the month, US equities continue to climb the wall of worry. Friday’s session saw a fresh all-time high for the S&P500 advance decline line and today was another encouraging demonstration of breadth with a 76% up day. However, the grind higher hasn’t been without its hiccups – the S&P500 has now seen four market cap swings of $2tn+ since the beginning of August! Yields slid across the curve t…

Go big or go home? Maybe if bases are loaded in the ninth inning, but if you’re Jerome Powell and the Fed the guiding mantra we’re used to is typically more to the tune of ‘data dependency’ and ‘proceeding with caution’. However, the past twenty-four hours have seen a renewed debate over whether we can expect a 25bp or a super-sized 50bp rate cut at the Fed’s Wednesday meeting. As for what has driven the dovish bout, last night former Fed President Dudley said that he sees a strong case for 50…

To 25 or 50—that is the question, and the main thing on investors’ minds currently. And while the distinction itself doesn’t feel overly critical to the market’s trajectory, there was a Nick Timiraos WSJ article today debating the merits of each. Spoiler – he doesn’t exert a strong opinion either way, but he does quote Fed officials who think 50bps would be a good start. While we await our beleaguered Fed, the SPX was busy trying to make fresh highs today (though couldn’t quite make it to the…

As the nation (globe) patiently awaits tonight’s US Presidential debate, markets were mixed on the day. Wobbly start for indices at the top of the trading session, before all main averages went red late morning to only have the SPX, CCMP, and NDX finish in the green. Between the Fed’s Barr touching on Basel III, and comments out of competitors conferences had markets jumpy to start. First, with DJ SOL aka David Solomon commenting last night on Q3 being lighter than expected mainly due to fixed…

After a dismal week to start September for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq who were down 4.25% and 5.89%, respectively, all main US indexes rallied today on limited economic data in what can mostly be seen as investors buying the dip. Despite last week being the worst week since March 2024, breadth returned strong today in the S&P 500 with over 80% of companies in the green, led by Telecoms, Banks, and Semis. The debate continues around the extent of rate cuts coming next week. When we left for the wee…

A brutal end to a week that might just leave you singing “Wake Me Up When September Ends”. Major US indices closed deep in the red with the S&P500 notching its worst week in eighteen months. Rotation was the name of the game as tech names bore the brunt of the selling pressure, but the main focus of the day was this morning’s hotly awaited NFPs for August. However, the reading ended up being more fizzle than firework as those holding out hope that the data would shed some light on what we can e…

Investors remain apprehensive ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, after the medley of labor market data this morning did little to assuage fears. The ADP Employment change hit the lowest level since 2021 at 99k vs 145k expected, jobless claims came in roughly in line, but were followed by slightly better ISM services later in the morning. Net/Net = not much. Yields shot lower on the data and the shift has left investors guessing about the economic outlook (though 2s10s has been inverted for 26 mon…

Markets struggled to rebound after yesterday’s tech rout where Nvidia (-1.6%) gave up $279b in market cap. This was not surprising given today’s limited data. Traders seemed to take a collective breath as they patiently await ISM services data tomorrow and payroll data on Friday. While we did receive the JOLTS survey this morning showing a decrease in job openings (lowest level since 2021), focus remains on Friday which will paint a better picture of the labor market. US Treasury rates did dec…

The conclusion of Labor Day Weekend here in the States means a few things….end of summer, more vehicles are back on the road, trains/subways are a bit busier, can feel the autumn in the brisk morning air, yes folks school/universities are back in order alongside the weakest historical month as exemplified in today’s trading! Fade after fade, session low after session low across the board from the SPX, CCMP, NDX and DIJA as US equities went from bad to worse. To start the day, it seemed as if mo…

They came, they watched, they left. The Fed, and therefore investors, had one more datapoint to monitor this week before starting their long weekend. The CPI print two weeks ago gave the Street some certainty that rate cuts would start on September 18th, and today’s PCE result added to that resolve. The result of 2.5% y/y was in line with estimates (and sequentially), and without any slippage to Personal Income or Spending, keeps the dialogue moving for the Fed. Next up is Nonfarm payrolls next…