The View From Fifth Avenue

It’s almost time for a Fed meeting and markets have high hopes. Despite a quiet, rangebound session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, and the Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to nine sessions. With no macro data on the calendar today, attention was firmly on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and with a 25bp cut is fully priced in, the real question is whether the Fed signals a cautious pace ahead or leans toward a faster cutting cycle. Traders will be watching Powell’s press con…

We have reached the end of the key economic data before next week’s Fed meeting. Today’s CPI data was probably the most anticipated data read out this year, and it ended up being overshadowed by initial jobless claims. August headline CPI increased to 2.9% from 2.7% while core CPI remain flat at 3.1%. Concerns around inflation remain but focus of traders has clearly shifted to the deteriorating labor market. Initial jobless claims rose to 263k, surprising investors. This is the high rate of job…

I was reminded this morning that on this day in 1944 during the planning for Operation Market Garden in the Netherlands, Lieutenant-General Frederick Browning said to Field Marshal Montgomery, “But, Sir, I think we might be going a bridge too far”. After succeeding on the mission’s first few objectives, the British 1st Airborne division was not able to secure the bridge over the Rhine in Arnheim, ultimately resulting in the last major allied defeat of WWII. This morning tidbit led me to ponde…

Markets opened mixed but gained momentum midday, continuing their push toward new all-time highs. All eyes were fixed on the revision to US employment data, coming in at -911k, not far from some of the more downbeat forecasts for near -1mil, reinforcing bets that that Federal Reserve will lower rates, now the question shifts to is it 25 or 50bps. Digital infrastructure stocks were higher following Microsoft’s new contract with Nebius, under the agreement MSFT is expected to pay NBIS 17.4bil fo…

The term mundane Monday comes to mind but that doesn’t quite do justice to the week ahead. It’s an eco-heavy one and as I’ve touched on previously those have a special place in my dorky heart. A 25bp rate cut on the 17th is all but accounted for with few economists left contemplating an upsized 50bps cut but the main debate is whether we will see a hawkish or dovish tilt dot plot and Powell Presser. Traders are currently pricing in nearly three cuts through the remainder of 2025 but there’s ple…

If markets are afraid of tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll outcome, they are not showing it. Indexes had a bottom left top right trajectory today and posted solid gains. The Russell 2000 led, finishing higher by 1.26%. But both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also participated, with the S&P enjoying another all-time closing high (Nasdaq only 6 points away). Treasuries also moved higher today with the 30-yr yield moving to 4.85% (almost touched 5% early yesterday morning) amid jobs data pointing to emerging wea…

Boom, we’re back…? Stocks snapped a two-day losing streak as renewed bets on a September rate cut (currently above 95%) and strength in the world’s largest tech names fueled a recovery. With markets eyeing Friday’s crucial NFP report (where odds imply a 95% chance of an upside move) a drop in July job openings to 10-month low reinforced expectations for two Fed cuts this year and pushed bond yields lower. Mega-cap tech did the heavy lifting, driving the Nasdaq (+1%) higher as Alphabet (+9.1%) h…

Markets didn’t react to any one single headline today—they were just digesting a summer’s worth of bad vibes and unwinding some of the S&P’s recent curious resiliency. The tech sector, usually Wall Street’s safety blanket, took a nosedive last week, yanking away a key source of support for the S&P, which looked dangerously close to breaking its 50-day moving average today. Meanwhile, a court ruling on IEEPA stirred up fresh tariff uncertainty just when businesses were starting to breathe easier…

Is it the weekend yet?? Labor Day vibes are starting to gain hold across the street as volumes on the S&P started to dry up, down 16% compared to the 20d average. Even yesterday’s highly anticipated Nvidia (-0.8%) print wasn’t enough to keep investors in their office chairs and not in their beach chairs. But that didn’t stop the S&P 500 for making ANOTHER all-time high closing above 6500, despite a slight disappointment in Nvidia earnings. Momentum trade is still very much a life as dips contin…

Personally, I view the two weeks of the US Open Tennis Championships as the unofficial ‘close out’ to the summer. Typically, this week before Labor Day, ‘out’ of office messages abound and market volumes reduce ‘pace’ as those away from the office ‘dig’ their feet into the sand. Wednesday was a muted session as indexes ‘bounced’ off early lows to climb throughout the day and finish slightly higher, SPX (+.24%), as investors laid in wait for NVIDIA’s (-.1%) results. The tariff ‘volleys’ continu…