The View From Fifth Avenue

Futures painted an encouraging picture first thing this morning, but investors were reticent to give it any credence until they saw further proof. Reinforcements came in the form of gains for heavyweight momentum names and a softer than expected CPI reading (MoM .2% vs .3% est and .5% in Jan). The softer-than-expected release provided some relief after a tech-led sell-off earlier in the week, driven by tariff fears and uncertainty (they’re on/they’re off!) and economic slowdown concerns. Volat…

Indices fought their way back to flat today, but ultimately sank into the close in another roller coaster session. An early – albeit eerie – calm was quickly disrupted by President Trump’s enthusiastic remarks on Truth Social, threatening to increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%… tomorrow! The headlines thwarted an early lift for US equities after the January JOLTS report showed job openings rose to 7.74 million from a revised 7.51 million in December. While the increase in d…

Transition, Correction, Detox, Pain…Yes to all the above as we are looking out below. Whispers of the “R”(ecession) word linger as concerns over the health of the US economy permeate global sentiment. Risk off has been the theme, however last week into today you felt the de-grossing taking the cake; looking ahead if pain persists, capitulation isn’t too farfetched. Felt like there wasn’t a haven in sight during today’s session, ex-defensives (mainly energy and utilities), from tech to commodit…

As the new administration in Washington plans its global rearrangements, Newton’s Third Law of Motion has kicked in to counter the trade/ policy forces being discussed. Caught in the middle are the US markets. Tariffs, whether they are occurring or not, continue to play a major role in directions, with today being no different. Instead of providing a timeline of them for today, the quick recap is that the US has paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico USMCA trade until April 2nd. Unlike yesterday,…

As we’ve all seen, tariff news has been driving the market’s volatility over the past week. This morning, that took a backseat for a second as a flurry of economic data emerged for investors to interpret. ADP Employment numbers well below consensus (77k vse 140k) sent equity futures into the red as traders keep an eye on the nonfarm payrolls that release Friday. The second half of economic data had more positive effect, with Service PMI in February breaching the 50 level, indicating an expansio…

Quote of the Day – “Excited for the US, Mexico, and Canada to jointly host the World Cup next year!”

For a day that started with a bitcoin inspired, risk-on tone it certainly didn’t end like one. Equities fell sharply across the board in a painful move that saw the S&P500 close -1.8%, the Nasdaq -2.2%, and the Dow -1.5%. The ongoing uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada came to a head as investors grappled with the reality of tomorrow’s deadline of 25% tariffs. Tech bore the brunt of the selling pressure as the once seemingly infallible heavyweight Nvidia tumbled a whopping 8%…

Here in NYC, the mood is starting to lift as daylight gets longer and the hopes of spring weather on the horizon start to rise. But on Wall Street the vibe is a much more concerning one as markets continue to their downward momentum following Nivida’s lukewarm earnings print and the end of an earnings season that left more to be desired. The CNN fear and greed index continues to lean towards “Extreme Fear” with S&P 500 firmly below its 100d (5950) and moving closer to its 200d mavg (5716). It’s…

A bit of running to stand still today as markets saw decent gains in the morning and lost them all in the afternoon, only to close basically flat. It was earnings optimism that provided the initial boost with Intuit (+12.6%), Lowes’s (+2%), TJX (+1.8%) and Workday (+6.2%) all outperforming the high standards on The Street. It was Trump’s cabinet meeting that caused the about face in the afternoon as tariff plans eroded confidence. Interestingly, with tariffs at least, the talk has outweighed th…

I.See.Red, as US equities behaved in a very risk off / de-grossing manner for most of today’s trading session. Main averages ended mixed to down as the globe gears up for Nvidia earnings post market tomorrow which can take us either way. Regarding the de risk mannerisms, there are signs that continue to emerge and/or crystalize which further the narrative. 1) Rotation towards more defensive/cyclical stocks, 2) Short term downside risk to SPX as it continues to trade sideways, 3) US Momentum Ind…