The View From Fifth Avenue

Wait…so did anything actually happen today?

The anguish was becoming unbearable, borderline exhausting…

Markets started the day firmly in the red after a record setting reversal day following Trump’s decision to pause tariffs with cooperating countries for 90 days, while increasing the pressure on China by increasing the levy to 125%. Halfway through the day the market rallied off the lows but struggled to gain any real traction as the S&P 500 closed below the 5300 level. US inflation cooled broadly in March, with the consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and energy costs increasing 0.1% fro…

Ladies and gentlemen hold on to your hats. Trump set the table early with a 10am tweet on Truth Social that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” but it was his early afternoon declaration of a 90 day PAUSE and reciprocal tariffs immediately lowered to 10% that sent equities flying. Trump also opted to raise tariffs on China to 125%, further escalating a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. China aside, what has previously been a hard line of 25% levies across the board is now a line…

Futures flashed in the green early this morning signaling the potential for a healthy pause in the tariff induced global equity sell off –- a red herring if there ever was one. Though the stage was set for a rally, nothing in this environment is a) as it seems, b) logical, c) predictable or d) any of the above. Major indices opened higher but lost steam throughout the day, with the Dow falling nearly 2000 points in 5 hours. The S&P has now had a trading range greater than 5% for 4 straight day…

Futures flashed in the green early this morning signaling the potential for a healthy pause in the tariff induced global equity sell off –- a red herring if there ever was one. Though the stage was set for a rally, nothing in this environment is a) as it seems, b) logical, c) predictable or d) any of the above. Major indices opened higher but lost steam throughout the day, with the Dow falling nearly 2000 points in 5 hours. The S&P has now had a trading range greater than 5% for 4 straight day…

For context within the first two hours of US trading “the S&P 500 had declined 4.7%, rallied 8.4%, plunged 5.45%, bounced 3.1%, and dropped 1.5%…”

As soon as the Rose Garden ceremony ended last night, investors knew they had a tough day in front of them. “Liberation Day” was announced, along with tariffs, and futures immediately dropped. That weakness continued into today’s session and did not end until the closing bell rung. As traders sit back, take a breath, and review the damage, there is little to be happy about. There were a couple sectors in the green, Staples (XLP +58bps) and Telcos (1.7%), but the downside underperformance was de…

Hear ye! Hear ye! The United States has finally been liberated…maybe? This day of tariffs has been marked with a red X on everyone’s calendar long before March 19th when President Trump officially dubbed it “Liberation Day”, but that doesn’t mean we’re anymore prepared then the first day it was announced. US stocks experienced continued volatility as traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the 4pm announcement which is expected to significantly impact global trade. Tariff ranging from 10- 20%…

It’s the eve of liberation day or better known across the world as April Fool’s Day, with investors patiently waiting for the uncertainty around tariffs to end. But as the late great Tom Petty once said, “the waiting is the hardest part” and that comes to an end tomorrow at 3pm in the rose garden of the White House. Investors will hopefully receive concrete trade policy tomorrow which could help alleviate the uncertainty in the market, but will it be enough to undo that damage that has been don…