Daily Snapshot

I haven’t been to Flat Iron for a while but I will certainly be visiting more frequently – 2 steaks, sides and sauces all came in under £50 and in these peak inflation times, that is a winner in my books. Yes it’s not your 500g wagyu from Hawksmoor but it certainly did the job. A* for customer service too which you just don’t see very often; during a clean out I found two £20 gift voucher coins from 2017 and cheekily asked if they still accepted them. Despite now being 6 years out of date they said – ‘why not’ and took it off the bill.

12 days into ‘Dry January’ and I have to say I don’t feel a whole lot better. I am certainly sleeping much better but that hasn’t gone down too well in the Morrison household as I sleep through some middle-of-the-night cries from the little one. The deep sleep comes in handy when the market throws you all kinds of curve balls on a day like today but even then it’s hard to keep up. Admit it, we all become inflation experts on U.S. CPI day. Will it, wont it, how high, how low….we never know but it does provide something to talk about in the lead up to the number.

A couple of new readers on the distribution list today after a client meeting this morning and what a day they’ve picked to read my first Snapshot. A bit of added pressure and not a huge amount to say with the market still in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s CPI. If there was anything to flag it would be how robust the retail prints have been so far this year. JD Sports (+6%) the standout today but good a good update too from Topps Tiles helping the narrative that the UK consumer is resilient.

Time to look forward and not back was the reminder I got this morning in Pret as I was told I’d have to wait until December before I can get my hands on a cheeky gingerbread latte again. Not sure it finds itself in the the ‘January health kick bucket’ so maybe they’re doing me a favour but back to the boring flat white with that extra shot to give me a kick in the right direction. A tussle over the last Redburn coffee mug and a healthy queue for lunch showing that the City is back in full force and it feels only a time before the tectonic plates shift once again.

“You’ve had a Five-Kilo-Christmas” said a wise (if slightly too honest) old head as he saw me squeezed uncomfortably into my suit for the first time this year and my goodness he’s not wrong. Easy and fun to put that weight on, tougher and less fun to take it off. But that’s what January’s for isn’t it. The month-long equivalent of a Monday morning. Head down and get on with it and lets focus on markets which right now are starting to look a little on the greedy side too.

How’s everyone’s detox going then? Had enough “handfuls of almonds” yet? Our desk weigh-in is done and the competition is ON. Let us see how long these good intentions last. How long the market rally lasts the biggest question on investors’ minds right now. Some in the “onwards and upwards” camp. Others very keen to see what next week brings. M&A bankers letting out a big sigh of relief as even in these early days there is clearly a lot of moving parts going on in the background.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who needed/wanted a couple of days to get back up to speed with sitting in the office and doing my job post the festive period but the market had other ideas and raced away with the best 3 day start to a year since 2009. When doing that digging I found some headlines from the period and it seemed it was all centred around disputes between Ukraine and Russia on gas supplies.

It’s not quite the end of the year but this will be the last Snapshot from me unless anything drastic happens and I feel the urge to pen some thoughts pre the markets shutting for 2022 on Dec 30th. The last time you will hear me wittering on about the markets until the New Year and I know that probably comes as a small relief to some of you as I am quite clearly needing to freshen up the anecdotes!

Christmas lists sadly a thing of the past for me, but it brings back some nostalgia thinking about how I used to compile them. A complex process involving an Argos catalogue, a pair of scissors and a pritt stick as I went through page by page of the 600 page catalogue picking out things, sticking them on the Christmas list, and even sometimes suggesting who should get what.

I’m not a big Bingo player but if I had my phrase sheet for Powell-Bingo tomorrow I’d be pretty happy with a selection of the following: “Good signs”; “the data is improving”; “might be appropriate to slow further”; “need to see further signs of inflation slowing”; “jobs market tightness is still a concern” and “core inflation is still too high”. 10 points for each and I would be surprised if I didn’t have 50points next to my name by the time Powell finishes speaking tomorrow evening (Let me know if you’ve got any bankers that I’ve missed!).