Daily Snapshot

Month end and MSCI reweights meant that after a lot of huff and puff not many houses were being blown down. Always a tricky day to assess what is going on the majority of action has been pre-determined by index funds and reweight baskets. It is a liquidity event, and for global Equities possibly the last big one before the summer with the June quarterly expiry maybe another one on the radar. Volumes elevated due to the passive flow and then surging on the close is a classic playbook for the day…

Working out where the Equity markets will go next is a tricky job, but not as hard as teaching 80, intoxicated English wedding guests the various intricacies and moves needed to complete the Dashing White Sergeant, Strip the Willow, The Gay Gordons and The Eightsome Reel. No easy task. Lots of flailing arms, moving parts but in the end no one really learnt anything or moved anywhere so maybe teaching Scottish Ceilidh dances and this Equity market have more in common than would be expected. Now…

It has been a while since we had a move of more than 1% for the Stoxx 600 and today the market didn’t mess around, moving the best part of 2% in the wrong direction which we haven’t since the 15th March! Sadly the large move didn’t come with any greater interest and it still feels like people are on the side-lines, observing the moves rather than acting on them. The driving force still feels to be the Debt Ceiling negotiations (understandably) which are ongoing but if you are to believe Yellen’…

With inflation still soaring how about we find you some ideas that we think could potentially double in the next 3 years? Well that was the aim of a new piece of research spanning all sectors, picking out a few themes – industrial change, growth and/or innovation, recovery and special situations and identifying 12 stocks that fit the bill. Ryanair, Tui, Vestas, Believe, ING, Kingspan and Bayer in Europe whilst Amazon, Herc, Sabre, Under Armour and Liberty Global were the U.S. picks. Conviction…

OK so hands up who opened their BBQ this weekend for the first time and realized that the annual vow you make to yourself to “properly clean it before putting it away for the winter” never quite happened. If a new global pandemic breaks out in the coming weeks it is very possible that the epicentre is the Quick family Weber such was the biodiversity uncovered. Worth it though ey – who doesn’t love starting a BBQ in the bright May sunshine and ending up eating inside because the temperature has…

There is a buzz of excitement & anticipation surrounding us here at Redburn… No it’s not that we are a step closer to a US debt ceiling agreement, nor is it hope that Man City can hold off Real Madrid to get to the CL Final. It is in fact our first official firm wide group drinks reception between Redburn & our new colleagues at Atlantic Equities in the 10 Aldermanbury boardroom. I checked the room earlier & with the tables pushed back to the edges, & plenty of space to mingle, I’ve found mysel…

Is it fair to declare today the first day of summer? 17 Degrees when I went outside and I know not really ‘hot-hot’, as a Scotsman walking through the City it felt a little like the Cote d’Azur (not that I’ve been) just without the Med. What better way to celebrate than a with an Aperol Spritz and the Tesco’s Clubcard right now gets you a 1L bottle for £15. Money saving tips from the Snapshot come as standard these days. That’s because inflation is still a problem near enough everywhere in the…

It is the first full 5-day working week in the UK this May though I think many would argue that today felt more like a bank holiday than the previous two Monday’s. ‘Sell in May and go away’ a well-trodden path for Equity investors over the years but the rule book has been ripped up this year as it seems investors on the whole are happy to do nothing in May and then go away. We’re 5bps higher from where we were a week ago, 5bps higher than where we were a month ago and only 3% higher than where…

The Bank of England website went down over the UK rate decision today which is surely the only day of the month where it receives any traffic at all! Not ideal Mr Bailey, not ideal. Thankfully they stuck to the script – 25bps now, more likely to come as inflation risks remained skewed to the upside thanks in large to the effects of a tight labour market. Significant upgrades to GDP forecast too with positive growth this year. Our take – we think the BoE is (still) too pessimistic on growth and…

With all the chopping and changing in the macro backdrop over the past year it felt like there was a collective sigh of relief as the major data point of the day, the U.S. CPI came in with no real surprises in either direction. The fall in services inflation to below 7% for the first time since last August was encouraging but will need to fall further to be consistent with 2% inflation. Services ex rent also fell but the April CPI is unlikely to alter course of Fed policy in the near term where…