2022 is currently the year with the most S&P down days since 1974. And 2022 is the third worst year already in the number of -3% weeks. And we’ve had six 3% down months in the last rolling 9 months, only surpassed in the 1930s. For the bulls – “Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011.” Something we can all hope for. Lots of amazing stats there and as much as I would like to take credit, all are from the Midweek Charts pack which is, in my opinion, the second best guide to what is going on, only just behind the Daily Snapshot of course.

In a world of bad news, and I’m not trying to hide the fact there is a lot, how great is it to see the news of Biogen and Eisai’s clinical trial which showed their Alzheimer’s drug slowed the rate at which the disease progresses. Over the past 25 years around 99% of Alzheimer’s studies have failed. Simon Baker our resident healthcare expert found 16 amyloid antibodies that have failed before this one and found 342 Alzheimer’s drug whose development has been suspended so this is really quite rare and something to cheer about.

A big day for a number of the Execution team here at Redburn tomorrow as the Corporate Photographer is in to take headshots. Lots of sleep tonight, crispest shirts on and a trip to the barber may be in order for some if we’re going to moonlight as models any time in the future. I am told the photographer is great, though not sure his skills can regrow the hair on the top of my head. Here’s for hoping. Bit of hoping for a ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ and it did feel like one at times but with no change to the fundamentals it felt like these bounces may only be temporary and we were treated to a choppy day.  

A week’s holiday isn’t quite the same with a 6mo old baby. Beaches, sun and relaxation swapped for just a bit of good old fashion helping out at home. It was nice to step away from the screens for a bit but it definitely feels, despite all that is going on, that getting back to the office is actually the break! I am aware there was a lot that happened last week and therefore I am possibly not the best person to judge today’s moves relative to last week but for an opening gambit I’m going to say they were fairly calm and orderly. A few things broke through levels and volumes drifted throughout the day but in the face of headwinds turning to storms, this wasn’t a bad day.

The sheer number of central bank meetings this week, particularly today (15 in last 24hrs!) got us here at the Daily Snapshot thinking as to which collective noun we’d use for central bankers? Of course, the obvious answer would be dictated by their bias. So the doves would be ‘a dole’ or ‘a bevy’, for bears it would be ‘a sloth’, & bulls ‘a herd’ or ‘a mob’. I’m going to steer clear of ‘a shrewdness’ (of apes) as it doesn’t seem apt given heightened expectations of a recession. So given most have been hawks we’ll settle on ‘a kettle’ or ‘a boil’ and commentary has certainly got the FX & bond mkts hot & bothered today.

Equity markets can be complex at times, and gains can occur for what morally seems the wrong reasons. Like today for example, where EU wide indices opened lower, and it took a ratchetting up of rhetoric from Russia’s Putin to get mkts motoring. Of course, Aerospace co’s benefit on the fear of military action, whilst the obvious spike in Oil helped Energy co’s lift too. Then there was a sigh of relief when the Times reported Liz Truss is to cut stamp duty on house purchases, sending anything from housebuilders themselves, to DIY & hard good related co’s such as Howden Joinery to bounce. This alongside tax & NI cuts will put money back in the pockets of the masses, in turn fuelling, you guessed it, exactly what we are trying to tackle…inflation.

Something caught my eye today that a colleague sent over, and it appears to be going somewhat viral (I feel I can use the term ‘viral’ again now as Pres. Biden declares covid pandemic is over).  It is the new football kit for Edinburgh based amateur Scottish side Newcraighall Leith Victoria, based upon a pint of beer. “Who & why?” I hear you shout, but they are important enough to have snaffled a sponsorship with Tennent’s, which explains the design. To offer something for non-beer drinkers there is a ‘Dark Fruit’ Strongbow inspired away kit, whilst the teetotallers, or presumably those under age can choose the 3rd kit, randomly based on PacMan.

You have to admit they are a pretty cool company. The Patagonia fleece as familiar to the outdoor hikers as it was to Wall Street bankers before they stopped putting corporate logos on them citing environmental concerns for the move – there was outrage, you’re not really ‘Wall Street’ without one right? They’ve gone one step further with what must be the most ESG move ever –  giving the entire company away to fight the Earth’s climate devastation.

The period during which things improve after a difficult, chaotic or stressful time – The Calm after the storm. It certainly felt a little like that throughout the day and although we slid from around the moment the U.S. woke up we were better to buy throughout the day and there wasn’t any real signs of panic. A 99% down day in the U.S. followed by a relatively mundane session in Europe with people busy working out what on earth is going to happen next. UK CPI hit and a fall in petrol prices was biggest downward influence on the annual CPI rate, partially offset by upward influences from food and clothing and footwear.

Lots of queue’s to be expected over the next week in London with the crowds gathering to pay their respects to the late Queen so make sure you leave plenty of time for getting about town. Early estimates put the number travelling to London to be 1m and there are warnings that the capital may become full for the first time ever. A few not risking missing out (but risking a few cold nights) by starting to queue by Lambeth bridge yesterday afternoon to funnel past on Wednesday at 5pm.