‘A rising tide lifts all boats’ was one of Timm Shulze-Melander’s comments this morning as he commented regarding Semi’s tech spending and although that makes sense in relation to Semi Capex inflation it certainly isn’t the theme of the year thus far for Equities. Unless global warming is causing regional tide’s to raise at different levels (which could very well be the case!) there was once again very clear disparity between some major global Equity markets. The tide very much heading out in A…

Was it just me or did the market felt much more sure about yesterday’s sell-off than it did about today’s rally? It was a late rally in Hong Kong and Chinese equities that seemed to set things on the path higher today but it probably can’t be classified as anything more than a little bounce after the week that we’ve had. No real signs of panic yesterday and given the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 started the day just 1.7% and 1.4% respectively off all-time highs it’s probably the reason why investors…

Big day in the Morrison household as I’ve been given the all clear to slowly phase out the crutches that have plagued my winter thus far. The tricky dilemma having avoided the vast majority of household chores is when to divulge this fairly important bit of news to the family. Taking out the rubbish always ends up being my job which I don’t mind so as and when I feel comfortable I’ll start with that. Nothing feeling comfortable about this Equity market and I thought Jamie Dimon summed it nicely…

We held our ‘Trading the Macro’ call which is always a useful refresher on all things going on across the world of markets. I couldn’t do it justice in a Snapshot so I won’t try but there will be a replay if you missed it. One section that I found particularly interesting was the underperformance of the UK equity spectrum since the middle of 2022 and whether that might inflect. Now I know it’s not the first time someone will have pointed out the underperformance and question whether it changes…

Today was never going to be action packed but Friday’s S&P 500 volume -6% vs the 20day average was their lowest of the year and it’s slightly sad that these sort of levels in Europe would probably have investors on the edge of their seat. In fact, Stoxx 600 volume has not been above the 20d moving average volume since 20th December 2023 nearly 4 weeks ago and volume for the first two weeks of 2024 in Europe was 12.98bn vs 16.74bn in the first two weeks of 2023. It will come, there is no doubt…

Back to school for me today as we sat down with our Economist Melissa Davies to go through her latest piece on ON RRP and the hedge fund basis trade and what it might mean which featured in the FT too overnight. It’s a fair old distance outside my comfort zone but it appears like it might have far reaching ramifications for all market participants. All depends how the Fed navigate the end of QT, how the Hedge Fund Basis trade works out, what it means treasury demand, liquidity and volatility. S…

“When do people come back?!?!” Cried one client to me today as European Equities remain seemingly stuck in second gear to start 2024 – (though arguably there has been a few stalls and actually in first). I’m sure people are back judging by ‘Out of Office replies’ and Bloomberg Green dots but they are likely assessing and it feels like a large majority are waiting to see how things play out before making any sizeable decisions. We’ve got U.S. CPI tomorrow which is expected to show a pick up in t…

I learnt a tough lesson in parenthood at the weekend as had to book the first flight for my daughter for after she will have turned two! Minus some cheaper taxes it is the same price as a full adult fare, I’m not sure what I was expecting since it is an extra seat but it certainly wasn’t that! A lesson I learnt early in my career in finance was that it’s all about supply and demand and today’s main feature was within the European Bond Market. It was a record breaking day in that regard with at…

Well it wasn’t the ‘real’ start of 2024 that I was hoping for after all. 30+ Upgrades/downgrades around the research departments in Europe showed that teams had pencilled in today as the day where everyone was back and would get the most traction and although the latter was often the case it was probably down to the quiet backdrop that today presented. Volumes were absent from the offset and never looked like getting to any reasonable aggregate level with some regions in Europe (Switzerland) -3…

I had a fairly major knee surgery at the end of November and as I slowly recover and get more mobility on my crutches I realise it has taught me a few lessons including the benefits of slowing down a bit in life and having a little patience. It also feels the market is having a similar approach to the start of 2024, there are quite a lot of things going on, quite a lot of moves but on the whole investors feel comfortable to let this week pass by which does feel quite prudent with 250 sessions o…